{"title":"There is Nothing Magical about Bayesian Statistics: An Introduction to Epistemic Probabilities in Data Analysis for Psychology Starters","authors":"Wojciech Świątkowski, Antonin Carrier","doi":"10.1080/01973533.2020.1792297","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper is a reader-friendly introduction to Bayesian inference applied to psychological science. We begin by explaining the difference between frequentist and epistemic interpretations of probability that underpin respectively frequentist and Bayesian statistics. We use a concrete example—a student wondering whether s/he carries the virus statisticus malignum—to explain how both approaches are different one from another. We illustrate Bayesian inference with intuitive examples, before introducing the mathematical framework. Different schools of thoughts and recommendations are discussed to illustrate how to use priors in Bayes Factor testing. We discuss how psychology could benefit from a greater reliance on Bayesian methods. Finally, we illustrate how to compute Bayes Factors analyses with real data and provide the R code.","PeriodicalId":48014,"journal":{"name":"Basic and Applied Social Psychology","volume":"42 1","pages":"387 - 412"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5000,"publicationDate":"2020-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/01973533.2020.1792297","citationCount":"8","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Basic and Applied Social Psychology","FirstCategoryId":"102","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01973533.2020.1792297","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"PSYCHOLOGY, SOCIAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
Abstract
Abstract This paper is a reader-friendly introduction to Bayesian inference applied to psychological science. We begin by explaining the difference between frequentist and epistemic interpretations of probability that underpin respectively frequentist and Bayesian statistics. We use a concrete example—a student wondering whether s/he carries the virus statisticus malignum—to explain how both approaches are different one from another. We illustrate Bayesian inference with intuitive examples, before introducing the mathematical framework. Different schools of thoughts and recommendations are discussed to illustrate how to use priors in Bayes Factor testing. We discuss how psychology could benefit from a greater reliance on Bayesian methods. Finally, we illustrate how to compute Bayes Factors analyses with real data and provide the R code.
期刊介绍:
Basic and Applied Social Psychology (BASP) emphasizes the publication of outstanding research articles, but also considers literature reviews, criticism, and methodological or theoretical statements spanning the entire range of social psychological issues. The journal will publish basic work in areas of social psychology that can be applied to societal problems, as well as direct application of social psychology to such problems. The journal provides a venue for a broad range of specialty areas, including research on legal and political issues, environmental influences on behavior, organizations, aging, medical and health-related outcomes, sexuality, education and learning, the effects of mass media, gender issues, and population problems.