Architectural Decisions for Communications Satellite Constellations to Maintain Profitability While Serving Uncovered and Underserved Communities

Abstract

The rise of the commercial space industry has resulted in the development of mega-constellations that promise to provide global broadband. These constellations capitalize on advancements in technology, improved modeling capabilities, and reductions in launch cost. One of the significant open questions is whether these constellations will significantly increase access for uncovered and underserved communities, in addition to serving existing markets. This paper analyzes which constellation characteristics provide the best global coverage at the lowest operational cost. First, we present the demand model that assesses the number of under-served and uncovered users in a given region. Then, we present a genetic algorithm used to identify potential constellations. Finally, we conclude by identifying which characteristics are the most promising for broadband constellations, as well as predictions of how the market will develop in the coming years. Our analysis has found that geostationary (GEO) and medium Earth orbit (MEO) satellite constellations have the highest likelihood of profitability. LEO networks are on average 27% more expensive, but if designed wisely, they can be competitive. Our work shows that there are diminishing returns with large constellations, and that it is more cost effective to have a small number of highly capable satellites, rather than many low complexity satellites. Key technologies like high frequency bands and miniaturization of components can lead to further cost reductions and increase the competitiveness of LEO constellations.