Wolves' contribution to structural change in grazing systems among swiss alpine summer farms: The evidence from causal random forest

IF 3.4 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Journal of Agricultural Economics Pub Date : 2023-04-08 DOI:10.1111/1477-9552.12540
Steffen Mink, Daria Loginova, Stefan Mann
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Abstract

The return of wolves to Swiss mountains and the damage they cause to sheep and goat herds in the region have raised concerns about a consequent wave of farm closures. In this paper, we examine the relationship between wolf attacks and the decline of Alpine summer farms, a specific high-altitude farm type. We collected farm structure data and monitoring data on wolf attacks between 2004 and 2021 and analysed them using a causal random forest method, enabling a detailed analysis of the relation between wolf attacks and the number of different types of Alpine summer farms at a regional level. The results show that the farming systems are unaffected by incidental and infrequent wolf attacks, but that a high number of wolf attacks in a region is related to faster decrease in number of grazing systems where sheep are most vulnerable to such attacks. In contrast, systems that allow for better herd protection tend to show an increase in areas with frequent wolf attacks.

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狼对瑞士高山夏季农场放牧系统结构变化的贡献:来自因果随机森林的证据
狼群重返瑞士山区以及它们对该地区绵羊和山羊造成的破坏引发了人们对随之而来的农场关闭潮的担忧。在本文中,我们研究了狼群袭击与阿尔卑斯夏季农场(一种特殊的高海拔农场类型)衰退之间的关系。我们收集了 2004 年至 2021 年期间的农场结构数据和狼群袭击监测数据,并使用因果随机森林方法对其进行了分析,从而在区域层面上详细分析了狼群袭击与不同类型的阿尔卑斯夏季农场数量之间的关系。结果表明,养殖系统不受偶然和不经常发生的狼群袭击的影响,但一个地区狼群袭击次数多,则羊群最容易受到袭击的放牧系统数量减少得更快。与此相反,能够更好地保护羊群的放牧系统往往会增加狼群频繁袭击的地区。
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来源期刊
Journal of Agricultural Economics
Journal of Agricultural Economics 管理科学-农业经济与政策
CiteScore
7.90
自引率
2.90%
发文量
48
审稿时长
>24 weeks
期刊介绍: Published on behalf of the Agricultural Economics Society, the Journal of Agricultural Economics is a leading international professional journal, providing a forum for research into agricultural economics and related disciplines such as statistics, marketing, business management, politics, history and sociology, and their application to issues in the agricultural, food, and related industries; rural communities, and the environment. Each issue of the JAE contains articles, notes and book reviews as well as information relating to the Agricultural Economics Society. Published 3 times a year, it is received by members and institutional subscribers in 69 countries. With contributions from leading international scholars, the JAE is a leading citation for agricultural economics and policy. Published articles either deal with new developments in research and methods of analysis, or apply existing methods and techniques to new problems and situations which are of general interest to the Journal’s international readership.
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