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Information, Beliefs and Support for Retaliatory Tariffs on US Agricultural Products: Evidence From a Randomised Controlled Trial in China 美国农产品报复性关税的信息、信念和支持:来自中国随机对照试验的证据
IF 3.4 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.70020
Guiwang Ling, Xi Tian
The US–China trade war has profoundly reshaped global agricultural markets, yet the consequences of protectionist measures for domestic public attitudes—particularly within collectivist societies like China—have been underexplored. This study investigates how Chinese citizens perceive retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural products and explores how awareness of economic self‐interest shapes their support for such policies. We develop a simple theoretical model showing that trade policy attitudes are shaped by both social values and economic beliefs, with the influence of new information moderated by trust and cognitive capacity. The model predicts that information interventions can recalibrate beliefs towards actual economic interests, with effects varying by information credibility and individual human capital. Employing a randomised controlled trial in 2023, we demonstrate that backing for trade protection in China is robustly associated with collectivist values. Individuals demonstrate a strong propensity of alignment with government positions over economic self‐interests. However, when people learn about how tariffs will personally affect their household costs, they become less supportive of trade protection because they revise their expectations about economic consequences. Notably, the efficacy of these interventions depends critically on the respondents' trust in information and their level of human capital. Our findings offer new insights into the dynamics of public opinion formation in contexts where information flows are state‐mediated, with direct implications for the design of agricultural and trade policy communication strategies.
美中贸易战深刻地重塑了全球农业市场,然而保护主义措施对国内公众态度的影响——特别是在像中国这样的集体主义社会——尚未得到充分探讨。本研究调查了中国公民对美国农产品报复性关税的看法,并探讨了经济自身利益的意识如何影响他们对此类政策的支持。我们建立了一个简单的理论模型,表明贸易政策态度受到社会价值观和经济信念的共同影响,新信息的影响受到信任和认知能力的调节。该模型预测,信息干预可以根据实际经济利益重新校准信念,其效果因信息可信度和个人人力资本而异。通过2023年的一项随机对照试验,我们证明了中国对贸易保护的支持与集体主义价值观密切相关。个人表现出与政府立场保持一致的强烈倾向,而不是经济上的自我利益。然而,当人们了解到关税将如何影响他们的家庭成本时,他们就不那么支持贸易保护了,因为他们改变了对经济后果的预期。值得注意的是,这些干预措施的有效性主要取决于受访者对信息的信任程度及其人力资本水平。我们的研究结果为在信息流由国家介导的背景下公众舆论形成的动态提供了新的见解,对农业和贸易政策沟通策略的设计具有直接意义。
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引用次数: 0
Protected Areas and Agricultural Biodiversity Conservation—Do Parks Increase AES Adoption? 保护区和农业生物多样性保护——公园会增加AES的采用吗?
IF 3.4 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-12-08 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.70017
Yanbing Wang, Christian Ritzel, Nadja El Benni, Robert Finger, Gabriele Mack
Although both protected areas and agri‐environment schemes (AES) aim to conserve biodiversity, the interaction between the two policy instruments is unknown. We investigate the effects of listing a region as a protected area (a regional nature park) on the uptake of biodiversity conservation AES within the region. Using panel data of all Swiss farms between 2005 and 2020, and survey data on 15 Swiss regional nature parks established between 2008 and 2018, we analyse the effects of park establishment on farmers' adoption of three types of AES for biodiversity conservation (action‐based, result‐based, and agglomeration) in a heterogeneity‐robust difference‐in‐differences framework. Overall, parks significantly increase the adoption of result‐based AES. Moreover, the park effect depends largely on the agricultural baseline where parks are established. In regions with relatively more intensive agricultural production and lower AES adoption beforehand, the establishment of parks increases the adoption of result‐based and agglomeration AES, evidencing synergies between the two policies. Such effects are not observed in regions with more extensive agricultural production and high AES adoption prior to park establishment. Moreover, the effects of park establishment increase over time. Therefore, when introducing a new policy aimed at integrating biodiversity conservation into agriculture, it is important to account for baseline situations and identify synergies between intended and existing policies.
尽管保护区和农业环境计划(AES)都旨在保护生物多样性,但这两种政策工具之间的相互作用尚不清楚。我们研究了将一个地区列为保护区(区域自然公园)对该地区生物多样性保护AES吸收的影响。利用2005年至2020年间瑞士所有农场的面板数据,以及2008年至2018年间建立的15个瑞士区域自然公园的调查数据,我们在异质性-稳定期差异-差异框架中分析了公园建设对农民采用三种AES进行生物多样性保护(基于行动、基于结果和集聚)的影响。总体而言,公园显著提高了基于结果的AES的采用。此外,公园效应在很大程度上取决于公园所在地区的农业基线。在农业生产集约化程度较高、事前AES采用率较低的地区,园区的建立增加了结果型AES和集聚型AES的采用率,证明了两种政策之间的协同效应。在建立公园之前,农业生产更广泛和AES采用率较高的地区没有观察到这种影响。此外,公园建设的影响随着时间的推移而增加。因此,在制定旨在将生物多样性保护纳入农业的新政策时,重要的是要考虑到基线情况,并确定预期政策和现有政策之间的协同作用。
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引用次数: 0
Do Adverse Events Influence Time Preferences? Evidence From Smallholder African Farmers 不良事件是否影响时间偏好?来自非洲小农的证据
IF 3.4 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-12-08 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.70012
Valentino Marini Govigli, Evans Chimoita, Gianluca Di Fiore, Faten Khamassi, Josephine Kisakye, Noureddine Mokhtari, Renalda Nanziga Munubi, Emmanuel Lubango Ndetto, Simone Piras, Marco Setti
Time preferences play a critical role in the agri‐food value chains of low‐income countries, impacting the choices of local operators, including innovation uptake. This paper assesses the association between smallholder farmers' individual characteristics, their exposure to diverse adverse events, and their intertemporal choices using in‐the‐field experiments conducted across five African countries. By jointly estimating time and risk preferences, we find that farmers who have experienced social setbacks during the previous year are more likely to be patient. This suggests that time preferences may vary over time, particularly when farmers are exposed to social distress (e.g., food shortage, health issues, violence, or crime). Moreover, we find gender to be a prominent factor associated with farmers' time preferences, with female farmers showing greater patience. These findings hold direct implications for both research and public policy initiatives aimed at influencing agricultural choices in the aftermath of social distress. By understanding the factors influencing time preferences, policy practitioners can develop more targeted and effective strategies to support smallholder farmers, thereby enhancing the resilience of agri‐food value chains in low‐income countries.
时间偏好在低收入国家的农业食品价值链中发挥着关键作用,影响着当地经营者的选择,包括创新的吸收。本文利用在五个非洲国家进行的田间实验,评估了小农的个体特征、他们对各种不良事件的暴露程度以及他们的跨期选择之间的关系。通过对时间偏好和风险偏好的联合估计,我们发现在前一年经历过社会挫折的农民更有可能保持耐心。这表明,时间偏好可能随时间而变化,特别是当农民面临社会困境(如粮食短缺、健康问题、暴力或犯罪)时。此外,我们发现性别是影响农民时间偏好的重要因素,女性农民表现出更大的耐心。这些发现对旨在影响社会困境后农业选择的研究和公共政策举措具有直接意义。通过了解影响时间偏好的因素,政策实践者可以制定更有针对性和更有效的战略来支持小农,从而增强低收入国家农业食品价值链的复原力。
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引用次数: 0
Labour Dynamics, Factor Substitution and Capital Adoption in Sub‐Saharan African Agriculture 撒哈拉以南非洲农业的劳动力动态、要素替代和资本吸纳
IF 3.4 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-12-06 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.70016
Pranav Patil, Franziska Schuenemann, Kenneth Strzepek
Ongoing structural transformations in many Sub‐Saharan African (SSA) economies are driving changes in labour inputs and wages, likely influencing smallholder agriculture and the direction of agricultural intensification processes. At the same time, the adoption of capital‐intensive technologies still remains puzzlingly low. This article, therefore, explores how smallholder farmers in Ghana, Tanzania and Malawi adapt their mix of production factors in response to evolving regional wage conditions. In particular, we investigate the nature of the relationship between capital and labour regarding their substitutability, given that the types of available capital and prevailing farming systems in SSA mean that mechanisation still requires significant complementary labour. Using a multi‐step method based on panel data, our results show that the elasticity of substitution between capital and labour is non‐unitary, indicating they are gross complements. In line with these findings, our binary choice model reveals that higher wages are likely to impede capital investment in African agriculture. Our findings corroborate recent literature from other regions and suggest that growth in the off‐farm economy could hinder the adoption of capital‐intensive agricultural technologies in SSA.
许多撒哈拉以南非洲经济体正在进行的结构转型正在推动劳动力投入和工资的变化,可能影响小农农业和农业集约化进程的方向。与此同时,资本密集型技术的采用率仍然低得令人费解。因此,本文探讨了加纳、坦桑尼亚和马拉维的小农如何根据不断变化的地区工资条件调整其生产要素组合。特别是,我们调查了资本和劳动力之间关于其可替代性的关系的性质,考虑到可用资本的类型和SSA的现行农业系统意味着机械化仍然需要大量的补充劳动力。使用基于面板数据的多步骤方法,我们的研究结果表明,资本和劳动力之间的替代弹性是非单一的,表明它们是总互补的。根据这些发现,我们的二元选择模型显示,更高的工资可能会阻碍非洲农业的资本投资。我们的研究结果证实了其他地区最近的文献,并表明非农经济的增长可能会阻碍SSA采用资本密集型农业技术。
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引用次数: 0
Direct and Indirect Effects of the COVID ‐19 Pandemic on EU Agri‐Food Trade COVID - 19大流行对欧盟农业食品贸易的直接和间接影响
IF 3.4 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-12-06 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.70015
Mariusz Hamulczuk, Grzegorz Szafrański, Karolina Pawlak, Daniel A. Sumner
Introducing and lifting COVID‐19 restrictions caused significant disruptions throughout the world economy, including in international trade. This study employs a panel gravity model to examine the impact of the pandemic on the agri‐food trade of EU countries. Specifically, we estimate the direct effects of the intensity of lockdown‐type policies on bilateral trade across country, product, and time dimensions, and the indirect effects of those policies as they work through domestic market impacts. We also decompose the indirect effects of COVID‐19 between the domestic demand side and supply side impacts. We provide insights into the sources of pandemic disruptions by comparing a ‘no‐COVID’ counterfactual scenario from March 2020 to February 2022 to the COVID‐19 reality. Our data analysis reveals a loss of 162 billion EUR in agri‐food trade due to direct and indirect effects of COVID‐19, equivalent to 11.3% of imports over the period. Approximately half of this total is comprised of intra‐EU bilateral trade. The COVID‐19 effects were proportionally greatest in the trade of fats and oils, and animal‐origin products, while vegetable‐origin and processed food products were affected only about half as much. Reduced intra‐industry demand was a dominant source of indirect effects in the trade of non‐processed food. In turn, the weakening of consumer demand was the main factor behind trade losses in processed food imports. The proportional trade impacts differ greatly across EU countries.
引入和取消COVID - 19限制措施对包括国际贸易在内的整个世界经济造成了重大干扰。本研究采用面板重力模型来检验大流行对欧盟国家农业食品贸易的影响。具体而言,我们估计了封锁型政策强度对跨国家、产品和时间维度的双边贸易的直接影响,以及这些政策通过国内市场影响产生的间接影响。我们还将COVID - 19的间接影响分解为国内需求侧和供给侧的影响。我们通过比较2020年3月至2022年2月“无COVID”的反事实情景与COVID - 19的现实情况,深入了解大流行中断的来源。我们的数据分析显示,由于COVID - 19的直接和间接影响,农业食品贸易损失了1620亿欧元,相当于同期进口的11.3%。其中约一半由欧盟内部双边贸易构成。在油脂和动物源性产品贸易中,COVID - 19的影响最大,而蔬菜源性和加工食品的影响仅为其一半左右。行业内需求的减少是非加工食品贸易间接影响的主要来源。反过来,消费者需求的减弱是加工食品进口贸易损失背后的主要因素。欧盟国家之间的贸易影响比例差异很大。
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引用次数: 0
Farm Policies and Their Impact on Sector Composition and Risk Aversion 农业政策及其对行业构成和风险规避的影响
IF 3.4 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-11-14 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.70014
Theodoros Skevas, Wyatt Thompson
This study examines how farm policies influence the composition and risk aversion of the farm sector using an agent‐based model based on Missouri crop farms. The analysis considers varying farmer risk aversion, payoffs from farming and other activities, and land competition. Policy scenarios include no policy, land subsidies and revenue floors. Findings indicate policies significantly affect who farms and sector‐wide risk aversion. Without policies, risk‐averse farmers exit, reducing sector‐wide risk aversion. Conversely, risk‐mitigating policies retain risk‐averse farmers, increasing sectoral risk aversion. The study further finds that altering the composition of individuals in the farm sector through risk‐reduction policies increases the demand for such policies. These results trace the risk‐reducing effects of policies from individual decisions about farm entry, expansion and exit to broader impacts on sector structure. For scientists, this highlights the need to consider sector‐level risk aversion as part of the research problem, not merely an exogenous aspect of a fixed population. For policymakers, results indicate that farm program design may affect who farms and lead to lower average risk tolerance, potentially increasing the demand for further publicly supported risk management tools.
本研究考察了农业政策如何影响农业部门的构成和风险规避,使用基于代理的模型,以密苏里州的农作物农场为基础。该分析考虑了不同农民的风险厌恶程度、农业和其他活动的收益以及土地竞争。政策情景包括没有政策、土地补贴和最低收入。研究结果表明,政策显著影响了谁在农场和整个行业的风险厌恶。如果没有政策,风险厌恶的农民就会退出,从而降低整个行业的风险厌恶程度。相反,风险缓解政策留住了风险厌恶的农民,增加了行业风险厌恶。研究进一步发现,通过降低风险政策改变农业部门的个人构成会增加对此类政策的需求。这些结果追溯了政策对降低风险的影响,从关于农场进入、扩张和退出的个人决策到对部门结构的更广泛影响。对于科学家来说,这突出了将行业层面的风险厌恶作为研究问题的一部分来考虑的必要性,而不仅仅是固定人群的外生方面。对于政策制定者来说,研究结果表明,农场规划设计可能会影响到谁去耕种,并导致平均风险承受能力降低,从而可能增加对进一步公共支持的风险管理工具的需求。
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引用次数: 0
Effects of Agricultural Land Titling on Poverty Reduction in China 中国农地产权制度对减贫的影响
IF 3.4 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-11-13 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.70013
Haiyuan Wan, Weidong He, Kejun Xin, Yangyang Shen, Yangcheng Yu
Using administrative data on low‐income populations, this study provides quasi‐experimental evidence on the impact of agricultural land titling on poverty reduction in rural China. We show that the staggered rollout of the programme at the town level significantly reduces household poverty incidence by enhancing labour incentives, facilitating the reallocation of labour to non‐agricultural sectors and increasing labour market participation among people with disabilities. We provide a simple theoretical framework with empirically testable predictions to interpret our results. Further analysis reveals that agricultural land titling promotes land reallocation and supports income growth through different channels for agricultural and non‐agricultural households. Additional evidence suggests that the programme mitigates vulnerability and reduces the risk of long‐term poverty. These findings illustrate how institutional reforms in property rights empower labour incentives among vulnerable groups, providing valuable insights for other developing countries aiming to achieve sustainable and inclusive poverty reduction.
本研究利用低收入人口的行政数据,为中国农村农业土地所有权对减贫的影响提供了准实验证据。我们的研究表明,在城镇层面错开地推出该计划,通过加强劳动力激励、促进劳动力向非农业部门的重新分配和提高残疾人的劳动力市场参与度,显著降低了家庭贫困发生率。我们提供了一个简单的理论框架与经验可检验的预测来解释我们的结果。进一步的分析表明,农业土地所有权促进了土地再配置,并通过不同渠道支持农业和非农业家庭的收入增长。其他证据表明,该方案减轻了脆弱性,降低了长期贫困的风险。这些发现说明了产权制度改革如何增强弱势群体的劳动激励,为其他旨在实现可持续和包容性减贫的发展中国家提供了宝贵的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Treatment Effect Heterogeneity of Farmers Participating in Cooperatives 农民参与合作社的待遇效果异质性
IF 3.4 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-10-29 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.70009
Drini Imami, Orjon Xhoxhi, Davit Babayan, Thomas Herzfeld, Rustam Rakhmetov
Despite the many studies providing evidence of the benefits of cooperatives, most small farms and farm households, particularly in transition economies, do not participate in them. This study analyses the effect of cooperative activity on farm performance using a large‐scale farm survey conducted in Armenia. In addition, it addresses the issue of heterogeneity, which is often overlooked in the literature. It looks at heterogeneity in terms of observed effect modifiers, which are measured covariates that can modify the causal effect of cooperation on a specific farm performance indicator. This is the first study that pays special attention to heterogeneity and uses the causal forest approach in the context of cooperative membership to characterise the drivers of treatment heterogeneity (i.e., variation in the causal impact of cooperative membership across farmers with different observable characteristics). Participation in cooperatives is associated with greater perceived farm performance among farmers with limited access to market information and low financial literacy. Similarly, higher benefits are observed for less experienced and older farmers, suggesting that cooperatives play a particularly important role in supporting more vulnerable subgroups.
尽管许多研究提供了合作社的好处的证据,但大多数小农场和农户,特别是在转型经济中,没有参加合作社。本研究通过在亚美尼亚进行的大规模农场调查,分析了合作社活动对农场绩效的影响。此外,它解决了异质性的问题,这在文献中经常被忽视。它从观察到的效应修正因子的角度来看待异质性,这是一种可测量的协变量,可以改变合作对特定农场绩效指标的因果效应。这是第一项特别关注异质性的研究,并在合作社成员的背景下使用因果森林方法来描述待遇异质性的驱动因素(即,合作社成员在具有不同可观察特征的农民之间的因果影响的变化)。参与合作社与获得市场信息有限、金融知识水平较低的农民对农场业绩的认知较高有关。同样,经验不足和年龄较大的农民获得了更高的收益,这表明合作社在支持更脆弱的次群体方面发挥了特别重要的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Private or Public? Farmer Preferences and Identities in Agri‐Environmental Contract Implementation 私人还是公共?农业环境契约实施中的农民偏好与认同
IF 3.4 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-10-15 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.70011
Christoph Schulze, Klaus Glenk, Julian Sagebiel, Bettina Matzdorf
This study investigates farmer preferences for publicly and privately financed agri‐environmental contracts. Using a labelled Discrete Choice Experiment with 366 German grassland farmers, we examine trade‐offs between payment schemes (public/private), payment criteria (practice‐based/result‐based), collaboration options, and advisory services. Our results show that farmers require higher compensation for privately financed contracts compared to public ones. On average, respondents prefer practice‐based over result‐based payments and value free advisory services, particularly in private schemes. Preferences for collaborative implementation indicate a strong desire for autonomy. A key contribution of this study lies in integrating farmer identity into the analysis. Drawing on a psychometric scale of ‘good farmer’ attributes, we identify three latent identities—productivist, environmentalist and civic‐minded—and show that these significantly explain heterogeneity in preferences and land enrolment decisions. Productivist farmers demand higher compensation and commit less land, while environmentalist and civic‐minded farmers are more inclined to participate and enrol larger areas, even at lower compensation levels. These findings highlight the importance of tailoring agri‐environmental contracts to farmers' identities through for example framing of agri‐environmental contracts accordingly. Privately financed schemes, such as those based on crowdfunding platforms, must address perceived risks, offer advisory support and develop communication strategies that resonate with different identity profiles. Recognising farmer identity as a behavioural driver can enhance participation in both public and private agri‐environmental schemes and inform more effective contract design.
本研究调查了农民对公共和私人资助的农业-环境合同的偏好。通过对366名德国草原农民进行标记离散选择实验,我们研究了支付方案(公共/私人)、支付标准(基于实践/基于结果)、合作选项和咨询服务之间的权衡。我们的研究结果表明,与公共合同相比,农民对私人融资合同的补偿要求更高。平均而言,受访者更喜欢基于实践而不是基于结果的支付和价值免费的咨询服务,特别是在私人计划中。对协作实现的偏好表明了对自主性的强烈渴望。本研究的一个关键贡献在于将农民身份纳入分析。利用“好农民”属性的心理测量量表,我们确定了三种潜在的身份——生产主义者、环保主义者和公民意识——并表明这些显著地解释了偏好和土地登记决策的异质性。生产主义的农民要求更高的补偿,并承诺更少的土地,而环保主义者和公民意识的农民更倾向于参与和登记更大的区域,即使在较低的补偿水平。这些发现强调了根据农民的身份定制农业-环境合同的重要性,例如通过相应的农业-环境合同框架。私人融资计划,如基于众筹平台的计划,必须解决感知到的风险,提供咨询支持,并制定与不同身份群体产生共鸣的沟通策略。认识到农民身份是一种行为驱动因素,可以提高公众和私人农业环境计划的参与度,并为更有效的合同设计提供信息。
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引用次数: 0
Consumer Preferences for Gene‐Edited Foods: A Review of the Literature and Discussion of Industry and Policy Implications 消费者对基因编辑食品的偏好:文献综述以及对行业和政策影响的讨论
IF 3.4 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-10-07 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.70008
Jia Han, Daniele Asioli, Giacomo Zanello, Vincenzina Caputo
Gene editing (GE), a revolutionary genetic engineering technology that makes targeted modifications to plant and animal genomes, offers the potential to address key challenges in food security, nutrition, safety, health, agricultural productivity, and sustainability, yet consumer demand for GE foods remains uncertain and complex. This study reviews (1) the factors affecting consumer preferences for GE foods and (2) studies on consumer acceptance of GE foods that feature comparisons to genetically modified (GM) foods. The present manuscript also discusses implications for industry and policymakers and identifies areas where additional research would further promote the acceptance of GE technology. A total of 74 consumer studies were identified, reviewed, and discussed. The results indicate that many factors drive consumer preferences for GE foods, mainly sensory attributes, nutritional content, price, risk perception, trust in institutions, consumer socio‐demographics, and available knowledge and information about GE technology. Furthermore, we found that consumers generally prefer GE foods over GM foods, but this preference varies depending on specific products and contexts. These findings provide useful insights for science, industry, and policymakers aiming to develop, commercialise, and regulate GE foods. Finally, several future research avenues are outlined and discussed.
基因编辑(GE)是一项革命性的基因工程技术,可以对植物和动物基因组进行有针对性的修改,为解决粮食安全、营养、安全、健康、农业生产力和可持续性方面的关键挑战提供了潜力,但消费者对转基因食品的需求仍然不确定和复杂。本研究综述了(1)影响消费者对转基因食品偏好的因素和(2)消费者对转基因食品接受程度的研究,其中包括与转基因食品的比较。本手稿还讨论了对行业和政策制定者的影响,并确定了进一步研究将进一步促进通用电气技术接受的领域。总共有74项消费者研究被确定、审查和讨论。结果表明,许多因素推动了消费者对转基因食品的偏好,主要是感官属性、营养成分、价格、风险感知、对机构的信任、消费者社会人口统计学以及对转基因技术的可用知识和信息。此外,我们发现消费者通常更喜欢转基因食品而不是转基因食品,但这种偏好因具体产品和环境而异。这些发现为旨在开发、商业化和管理转基因食品的科学、工业和决策者提供了有用的见解。最后,对未来的研究方向进行了展望和讨论。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Agricultural Economics
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