Journal of Agricultural Economics最新文献

This paper assesses the response of agricultural commodity markets to Russia's withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI). Employing daily commodity-level data and event study methods, we analyse the impact on seven agricultural commodities and four key market metrics, including futures prices, historical and implied volatility, and speculative pressure. Our findings show a statistically insignificant increase of 1.1% in agricultural futures prices within the first seven trading days following the BSGI termination. In the following days, futures prices began to decline, eventually returning to levels below those observed before the withdrawal, a pattern further underscored by our implied volatility analysis. While there is no evidence of heightened speculation, we find some evidence for treatment differences across agricultural commodities. These findings suggest that traders did not believe in the likelihood of a blockade of Black Sea grain shipments.

Retail distribution is essential for the growth of markets for local food. While online direct-to-consumer and local food hubs are becoming more sophisticated, the largest market for local foods remains the traditional intermediation (retailing) sector. We develop an agent-based model to simulate the expansion, growth and profitability of retailers offering local foods across a landscape populated by consumers and competing retailers. We design a series of experiments to examine how changes in prices and assortment that include local and non-local options in the fresh produce category impact store market share and profitability. We validate the model, and conduct our experiments, using household fresh produce expenditures data from a retail food-delivery business in the Mid-Atlantic region of the US. We find that retailers offering a larger assortment of local foods are able to sustain higher basket-average retail prices and exhibit higher long-run profits in comparison to retailers that do not carry local options. These results underscore the importance of local foods in a food retailer's price and assortment strategy. The key implication is that retailers need to be conscious not only of the breadth but also of the quality of their assortment in their pricing strategies.

This paper investigates the impact of heat waves on the productivity of the Italian food industry. Using daily weather and firm-level data for the 2004–2019 period, we show that a heat wave causes, on average, a reduction in Total Factor Productivity (TFP) of about 3.2%. Smaller firms are more severely affected, with a reduction of approximately 7%, revealing unequal impacts within the same country and sector. The reduction in TFP can be partially attributed to lower workers' productivity, with labour input increased in order to compensate for productivity loss. The estimated effect is heterogeneous across subsectors, with some well-known Italian products (e.g., wine production) more severely affected by heat waves. These findings have significant policy implications due to the expected increase in the frequency of heat waves caused by climate change, and are particularly important in the case of the Italian food industry, which is mainly composed of small firms. The paper highlights the need to investigate further the impacts of heat stress on the entire food system, as most of the literature has predominantly focused on the agricultural sector.