Adaptive Pathways for Resilient Infrastructure in an Evolving Disasterscape

Abstract

The human pursuit of greater well-being through better and faster growth paths for economic and social development is as old as the anthropocene itself. Infrastructure creation is at the core of this pursuit. However, infrastructure systems suffer due to disasters triggered by natural hazards, manmade events and impacts of climate change, compromising much of the development dividend of investments in these systems. To ensure that infrastructure can withstand predictable shocks, continue to provide essential services during crises and bounce back stronger to their full performance swiftly, there is a need to develop climate and disaster-resilient infrastructure. Infrastructure resilience is a dynamic concept with innate complex attributes, such as assurance of service delivery, interdependence between systems and long life of assets in dynamic environmental contexts. Complexities of infrastructure resilience are further compounded by uncertainty engendered by climate change, socio-political instabilities and economic growth. Given the scale of investment required, infrastructure development is typically undertaken with a 10 to 50-year horizon. However, rapid changes in environmental contexts and technological evolution, along with user expectations for faster and better services limit the extents of ‘long term’ thinking. A case in point is the current push for net zero energy transition that has triggered a shift towards cleaner energy sources such as hydrogen. However, hydrogen generation requires renewable energy sources such as wind to deliver on its environmental objectives fully and in coastal areas and island contexts, off-shore wind energy infrastructure is highly vulnerable to various hazards such as cyclones and tsunamis, rendering the entire net zero energy value chain at risk. Likewise, the unprecedented floods of 2021 in Ahr valley (Germany), New York (USA), Black Sea region (Turkey) and Kolhapur (India) are testimony that the past is no longer a good guide for the future. Analysis of past trends provide limited information to define the problem or the solutions we propose in the form of infrastructure systems. Such situations prompt the question: How do we develop resilient infrastructure for a not-so-distant, dynamic, and highly uncertain future?