Hunting for Gray Rhinos and terrorism in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia

Abstract

ABSTRACT Statistical modelling of terrorism has advanced the understanding of its underlying drivers. However, numerous questions remain, some have not been empirically tested, and regional dynamics differ. In recent decades, the Middle East/North Africa (MENA) and Central Asia have been focal points of terrorism. An extensive review of global and regional statistical models of terrorism at the country-year level was conducted and hypotheses re-tested on a database for MENA and Central Asia for years 1998–2017. The analysis indicates that the primary drivers of terrorism in this region are corruption, war, state terror, weak democracy, and unemployment. Fuel exports, ethnic and religious fractionalization, youth bulges, and internally displaced persons (IDPs) have little or no statistically significant relationship to terrorism in the region. Collectively, these results indicate that certain factors can anticipate terrorism in the region. Further analysis indicates that some factors have the potential to erupt suddenly and therefore require constant monitoring and sound contingency planning.