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Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide最新文献

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Should activism be treated as an indicator of attitudes towards political violence? 激进主义是否应该被视为对政治暴力态度的一个指标?
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-04 DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2023.2253445
Tomislav Pavlović
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引用次数: 0
‘When militias go ‘rogue’: explaining anti-government extremism in so-called ‘pro-nation-state’ militias in the United States of America and Ukraine 当民兵变成“流氓”:解释美国和乌克兰所谓的“亲民族国家”民兵中的反政府极端主义
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-31 DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2023.2219703
Dale Pankhurst
Polarization, populism, and animosity amongst political parties, movements, and societies across Europe and North America has led to an increase in violent extremism in recent years. Groups and individuals motivated by extremist ideology have launched violent attacks against democratic institutions, murdered elected represen- tatives, and bombed government buildings. Militia organizations with a pro-state orientation have also been involved in anti-government extremist violence and terrorism against their own governments. Despite being pro-nation-state, some of these militias now have an anti-government agenda leading to an awkward relationship with the state as a diverse actor encompassing both the government and other state institutions. How can we explain the shift in pro-nation-state militias from pro to anti-government extremism? Using contemporary case studies from both the United States of America and Ukraine, this article will propose that ideological de-alignment between the government and the militia group leads to pro-state militias becoming anti-government. Furthermore, the article will argue that bargaining processes relating to power and control between pro-state militias and governments can lead to these militias exhibiting anti-government extremist behaviour.
近年来,欧洲和北美的政党、运动和社会之间的两极分化、民粹主义和仇恨导致了暴力极端主义的增加。受极端主义意识形态驱使的团体和个人对民主机构发动了暴力袭击,谋杀了民选代表,炸毁了政府大楼。具有亲国家倾向的民兵组织也参与了反政府极端主义暴力和针对本国政府的恐怖主义活动。尽管支持民族国家,但这些民兵中的一些人现在有反政府的议程,导致他们与国家的关系尴尬,因为他们是一个包括政府和其他国家机构在内的多元化角色。我们如何解释亲民族国家民兵从亲政府极端主义向反政府极端主义的转变?本文将利用来自美国和乌克兰的当代案例研究,提出政府与民兵组织在意识形态上的不一致导致亲政府的民兵变成反政府的。此外,本文将论证亲国家民兵与政府之间有关权力和控制的讨价还价过程可能导致这些民兵表现出反政府极端主义行为。
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引用次数: 0
Perception of human rights, law enforcement interference and justifiability of terrorism: a Cross-National Analysis 人权观念、执法干涉和恐怖主义的正当性:一项跨国分析
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-30 DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2023.2218914
Nabil Bill Julkif
ABSTRACTThis paper seeks to understand how subjective perceptions of human rights influence the justifiability of terrorism at the individual level, net of individual and country-level controls. Utilizing the seventh wave of World Values Survey data and 65,668 respondents from 52 countries, this study finds those who report greater interference in their lives from security agents and those who see the country as being run more democratically are more likely to find terrorism justified, while those who perceive less respect for human rights are less likely to do so. The effect of state terror on the justifiability of terrorism is moderated by perceived democracy, with those perceiving the country as being run more democratically being more likely to find terrorism justified when state terror is high.KEYWORDS: Terrorismhuman rightssocial psychologyCross-National researchquantitative multilevel models AcknowledgementThe author thanks The Editor of this journal, the two anonymous peer reviewers, the anonymous peer reviewer in an earlier version of this manuscript and Ms. Merit Goddard Martens for her help in copyediting this paper.Disclosure statementThere are no conflicts of interests.Notes1. For fundraising of WVS see https://www.worldvaluessurvey.org/WVSContents.jsp;fieldwork and sampling: https://www.worldvaluessurvey.org/WVSContents.jsp;questionnaire development: https://www.worldvaluessurvey.org/WVSContents.jsp2. Puerto Rico (PR) was surveyed in 2018 but in this study, PR & US are treated as one country.3. An example of what kind of state terror leads to a particular PTS score: is https://www.politicalterrorscale.org/Data/CodingExamples.html4. Taiwan’s HDI was found on Taiwan’s national Statistics website (Not UNDP): https://eng.stat.gov.tw/ct.asp?xItem=25280&ctNode=6032&mp=5Additional informationNotes on contributorsNabil Bill JulkifThe author is a PhD student at SIU Carbondale
摘要本文试图理解对人权的主观认知如何在个人层面、个人层面和国家层面的控制下影响恐怖主义的正当性。利用第七轮世界价值观调查的数据和来自52个国家的65,668名受访者,这项研究发现,那些报告自己的生活受到安全人员更多干预的人,以及那些认为国家管理更民主的人,更有可能认为恐怖主义是正当的,而那些认为不太尊重人权的人则不太可能这样做。国家恐怖主义对恐怖主义正当性的影响被感知到的民主所缓和,那些认为国家管理更民主的人更有可能在国家恐怖主义程度较高时发现恐怖主义是正当的。关键词:恐怖主义;人权;社会心理学;跨国研究;披露声明不存在利益冲突。有关WVS的筹款,请参阅https://www.worldvaluessurvey.org/WVSContents.jsp;fieldwork和抽样:https://www.worldvaluessurvey.org/WVSContents.jsp;questionnaire development: https://www.worldvaluessurvey.org/WVSContents.jsp2。波多黎各(PR)在2018年接受了调查,但在这项研究中,波多黎各和美国被视为一个国家。关于什么样的国家恐怖主义会导致特定的PTS分数的一个例子是https://www.politicalterrorscale.org/Data/CodingExamples.html4。台湾的人类发展指数是在台湾国家统计网站(不是联合国开发计划署)上发现的:https://eng.stat.gov.tw/ct.asp?xItem=25280&ctNode=6032&mp=5Additional information贡献者说明:比尔·比尔·朱基夫,作者是SIU卡本代尔大学的博士生
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引用次数: 0
Vicious gift? Types of external support and child recruitment by rebel groups 邪恶的礼物?外部支持的类型以及反叛组织招募儿童的类型
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-04 DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2023.2218894
Y. Yang
ABSTRACT Existing research on child soldiering has largely neglected whether external support affects the decision of child soldiering by rebel groups. This paper shows that rebel groups’ levels of engagement in child soldiering depends on the types of support that rebel groups receive. I argue that territorial support is associated with increased child recruitment, while troop and monetary support are associated with less child soldiering. This research has crucial implications for our understanding of the relationship between rebel groups’ engagement in human rights violations and support from external actors. Furthermore, this research highlights previously overlooked roots of the use of child soldiers, so policy makers can pay more attention to these issues in the future.
现有关于儿童当兵的研究在很大程度上忽略了外部支持是否会影响反叛组织的儿童当兵决定。这篇论文表明,反叛团体参与儿童兵的程度取决于反叛团体获得的支持类型。我认为,领土支持与增加招募儿童有关,而部队和金钱支持与减少儿童兵有关。这项研究对我们理解反叛团体参与侵犯人权与外部行为者支持之间的关系具有重要意义。此外,这项研究强调了以前被忽视的使用儿童兵的根源,因此政策制定者可以在未来更多地关注这些问题。
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引用次数: 0
Normative and instrumental judgements of policing and their relative impacts on police empowerment during protracted conflict 在长期冲突中,警务的规范性和工具性判断及其对警察赋权的相对影响
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-04 DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2023.2218899
Daisy Muibu
ABSTRACT Why do citizens living under conditions of protracted conflict empower the police with greater discretionary authority? Relying on survey data of community perceptions, this study compares the relative impact that normative and instrumental judgements of policing have on the public’s willingness to empower the police with greater discretionary authority in a context of protracted conflict located in sub-Saharan Africa. Results from this study of 323 residents living in Kismayo city in southern Somalia suggest that both normative and instrumental judgements matter for empowering police to fight crime. Moreover, the perception that the police are representative of local clans is also significantly associated with police empowerment. Accordingly, these findings suggest support for the notion that there does not always exist a “zero-sum game” between normative and instrumental judgements, particularly in a sociopolitical context little studied within the policing literature.
摘要:为什么生活在旷日持久的冲突中的公民赋予警察更大的自由裁量权?根据社区认知的调查数据,本研究比较了规范性和工具性的警务判断对公众在撒哈拉以南非洲旷日持久的冲突中赋予警察更大自由裁量权的意愿的相对影响。这项针对索马里南部基斯马尤市323名居民的研究结果表明,规范性和工具性的判断对赋予警察打击犯罪的权力都很重要。此外,认为警察代表当地部族的看法也与赋予警察权力密切相关。因此,这些发现支持这样一种观点,即规范性判断和工具性判断之间并不总是存在“零和游戏”,特别是在警务文献中很少研究的社会政治背景下。
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引用次数: 1
Why are some suicide terror attacks more newsworthy than others? 为什么一些自杀式恐怖袭击比其他的更有新闻价值?
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-04 DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2023.2218900
Suranjan Weeraratne
ABSTRACT Given their deeply deviant nature, suicide terror attacks are highly newsworthy events and in theory, should attract high levels of media coverage. However, this is not the case and some suicide bombings tend to be covered more extensively than others. Through a detailed case study of Boko Haram, this research delineates the conditions under which suicide attacks are more likely to be covered across national, regional and international media outlets. The analysis relied on a dataset of 473 suicide attacks carried out by Boko Haram since 2011. Drawing on a news media distortion analysis, this study finds multiple attributes of suicide terrorism can entice heightened levels of reporting. Suicide attacks entailing higher fatalities, female perpetrators and civilian targets all lead to greater media attention while ambiguity in terms of perpetrator gender identity significantly diminishes coverage. Moreover, all of these factors are robust across national, regional and international media outlets, though the effect of gender is strongest for international media sources. Suicide attacks on Nigerian soil are generally more likely to be covered compared to attacks elsewhere in West Africa where Boko Haram is also active and this effect is especially strong for international media coverage.
摘要自杀式恐怖袭击具有极为离经叛道的性质,是极具新闻价值的事件,理论上应该引起媒体的高度关注。然而,事实并非如此,一些自杀式爆炸事件的报道往往比其他爆炸事件更为广泛。通过对博科圣地的详细案例研究,这项研究描绘了国家、地区和国际媒体更有可能报道自杀式袭击的条件。该分析基于博科圣地自2011年以来实施的473起自杀式袭击的数据集。根据新闻媒体的扭曲分析,这项研究发现自杀式恐怖主义的多种特征可以吸引更高水平的报道。自杀式袭击导致更高的死亡人数、女性犯罪者和平民目标,所有这些都引起了媒体的更多关注,而犯罪者性别认同方面的模糊性大大减少了报道。此外,所有这些因素在国家、区域和国际媒体中都很强大,尽管性别对国际媒体来源的影响最为强烈。与博科圣地也很活跃的西非其他地区的袭击相比,尼日利亚境内的自杀式袭击通常更有可能被报道,这种影响在国际媒体的报道中尤其强烈。
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引用次数: 0
Measuring the competitive communicative constitution of insurgencies and their opponents 衡量叛乱分子及其对手的竞争性沟通结构
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-04 DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2023.2218888
Kyle M. Schwing, Jason A. Spitaletta, Jonathan Pitt
ABSTRACT We introduce a method to measure the socially constituted strength of an insurgency and its state opponent as they compete for recognition as a governing body, based upon the four flows theory of the communicative constitution of organizations. We validate our method using a RAND data set of 30 recently concluded insurgencies, and find that our method not only predicts the ultimate victor in all 30 conflicts, but also refines previous analyses of the pattern of conflict by reducing the number of parameters necessary to forecast outcomes and grounding these observed trends in the intersection of organization and communication theories. Our results reveal the criticality of an organization maintaining an aura of cohesive structuring while avoiding to appear more oppressive than its opponent.
摘要:我们介绍了一种基于组织沟通构成的四流理论的方法,来衡量叛乱及其国家对手在争夺治理机构认可时的社会构成力量。我们使用兰德公司最近得出的30起叛乱的数据集验证了我们的方法,发现我们的方法不仅预测了所有30起冲突的最终胜利者,而且通过减少预测结果所需的参数数量,并将这些观察到的趋势建立在组织和沟通理论的交叉点上,改进了以前对冲突模式的分析。我们的研究结果揭示了一个组织在保持凝聚力结构的同时避免显得比对手更具压迫性的关键性。
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引用次数: 0
Why do some terrorist campaigns escalate to civil wars but others do not? 为什么一些恐怖主义活动升级为内战,而另一些却没有?
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2023.2182446
Ibrahim Kocaman, Isa Haskologlu, Mustafa Kirisci
ABSTRACT The recent literature on antecedents of civil wars focuses primarily on the escalation of non-violent movements to civil wars. Still, it remains silent on why some terrorist campaigns manage to turn their violent campaign into a sustained insurgency. By filling this lacuna, we provide empirically supported explanations for this puzzle. Specifically, we explore the effects of three factors on a terror group’s chance to escalate the civil war, which are 1) how the state responds to the group’s terror campaign, 2) how the group responds to the state’s counterterrorism strategies, 3) and the state’s relations with other states. By testing our theory with recently released data on terrorist groups, we find that a terror group’s campaign is more likely to escalate to a civil war when 1) the state uses more repression against the terror group and 2) the group diversifies its attack portfolio. In addition, we also find that a terror group is less likely to escalate its campaign to a civil war if the state engages in an interstate rivalry, and the state responds to the group with higher spending on public goods, specifically social welfare goods. The results provide implications for future studies on terrorism and civil war.
最近关于内战前因的文献主要集中在非暴力运动升级为内战。然而,对于为什么一些恐怖主义活动能够将暴力活动转变为持续的叛乱活动,美国仍然保持沉默。通过填补这一空白,我们为这一难题提供了经验支持的解释。具体来说,我们探讨了三个因素对恐怖组织升级内战的影响,这三个因素是:1)国家如何应对该组织的恐怖活动,2)该组织如何应对国家的反恐战略,3)以及国家与其他国家的关系。通过用最近公布的关于恐怖组织的数据来检验我们的理论,我们发现,当1)国家对恐怖组织采取更多镇压措施,2)恐怖组织将其攻击组合多样化时,恐怖组织的活动更有可能升级为内战。此外,我们还发现,如果国家参与州际竞争,恐怖组织不太可能将其活动升级为内战,并且国家以更高的公共产品,特别是社会福利产品支出来回应该组织。研究结果为今后研究恐怖主义和内战提供了启示。
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引用次数: 0
Letter From the Editor 编辑来信
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2023.2201519
A. Lemieux
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引用次数: 0
Insurgent and terrorist groups’ participation in politics reduces violence 叛乱和恐怖组织参与政治减少暴力
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2023.2182445
Michelle Black, Rula Jabbour
ABSTRACT Activities of insurgent and terrorist groups generally end in military defeat, victory, or negotiated settlement. However, what if there is another option beyond these three choices that could help explain strategies among modern-day insurgencies or terrorist organizations? Specifically, what if groups officially and legitimately renounced violence and joined the political process they initially fought? The fear, many would argue, is a return to violence and conflict if the members are provoked while in office. Our study specifically addresses these concerns by asking: under which conditions do insurgent and terrorist groups reduce their use of violence? We investigate this question by performing a comparative case study on a collection of groups, empirically testing the hypothesis that upon entering the political process, insurgent or terrorist groups are more likely to reduce their use of violence. Essentially, we argue that violent groups that enter the political process are more likely to reduce violence than groups that do not enter the political process.
叛乱和恐怖组织的活动通常以军事失败、胜利或谈判解决告终。然而,如果除了这三种选择之外,还有另一种选择可以帮助解释现代叛乱或恐怖组织的策略呢?具体来说,如果各团体正式合法地放弃暴力,加入他们最初参与的政治进程,该怎么办?许多人认为,如果成员在任职期间受到挑衅,他们担心会再次爆发暴力和冲突。我们的研究通过以下问题具体解决了这些关切:叛乱和恐怖组织在什么条件下减少使用暴力?我们通过对一系列团体进行比较案例研究来调查这个问题,实证检验这样一种假设,即叛乱或恐怖团体在进入政治进程后更有可能减少使用暴力。从本质上讲,我们认为,与没有进入政治进程的团体相比,进入政治程序的暴力团体更有可能减少暴力。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide
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