REPEATABILITY CYCLES OF RIVER DISCHARGES: CAN WE IDENTIFY DISCHARGE PATTERNS? A CASE STUDY OF THE SOUTH MORAVA RIVER (SERBIA),

IF 0.9 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q4 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Carpathian Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-10 DOI:10.26471/cjees/2023/018/266
Marko Langović, N. Živković, Slavoljub Dragićević, J. Luković
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Abstract

Water scarcity, unequal access to water resources, and the impact of climate change on water availability are among the major global environmental concerns. As dynamic and vulnerable water subjects, rivers are constantly exposed to the pressure of natural conditions variability (primarily climatic) and direct anthropogenic influences. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate river regime dynamics over longer periods to adapt the water management sector, and human demands to any observed variations in river discharge. Observing the periodicity or cyclicity of the occurrence of certain discharge values is an important topic of modern physical geography and hydrology research. Statistics and hydrologic modelling provide great opportunities for observing cyclicality and forecasting future trends. The aim of this paper is to indicate the importance of specific statistical methods of autocorrelation and spectral analysis to study the repeatability of mean annual and maximum discharges. The South Morava River in Serbia (HS: Mojsinje, Korvingrad, Grdelica) has been selected as a case study. The obtained results (period: 1924-2021) indicated the significant cyclicity of mean annual discharges, especially pronounced at the upstream hydrological station Grdelica (3.5-year cycle) and downstream hydrological station Mojsinje (19.5-year cycle). These cyclicities are mostly influenced by variations in the amount of precipitation received from the upper part of the river basin (R > 0.6). In contrast, no regular cycles of maximum annual discharge values were determined in the studied period. The obtained results can be important for future detailed geographic and hydrologic studies as well as for the development of strategies and plans in the field of water management, environmental protection, spatial planning, prevention of floods and droughts, etc.
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河流排放的可重复性循环:我们能识别排放模式吗?南摩拉瓦河(塞尔维亚)个案研究
水资源短缺、水资源获取不平等以及气候变化对水资源供应的影响是全球主要的环境问题。作为动态和脆弱的水主体,河流不断受到自然条件变化(主要是气候)和直接人为影响的压力。因此,有必要在较长时期内研究河流动态,以使水管理部门和人类需求适应任何观察到的河流流量变化。观测某一流量值发生的周期性或循环性是现代自然地理学和水文学研究的一个重要课题。统计和水文模拟为观测周期性和预测未来趋势提供了很好的机会。本文的目的是指出自相关和光谱分析等特定统计方法对于研究年平均流量和最大流量的可重复性的重要性。塞尔维亚的南莫拉瓦河(塞尔维亚语:Mojsinje, Korvingrad, Grdelica)已被选为一个案例研究。研究结果(1924—2021年)表明,流域年平均流量具有显著的周期性,上游水文站Grdelica(3.5年周期)和下游水文站mojsininje(19.5年周期)的变化尤为明显。这些周期主要受流域上游降水变化的影响(r>.6)。相比之下,在研究期间没有确定最大年排放量的规律周期。所获得的结果对于未来详细的地理和水文研究以及在水管理、环境保护、空间规划、预防洪涝和干旱等领域制定战略和计划具有重要意义。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.30
自引率
25.00%
发文量
42
审稿时长
12-24 weeks
期刊介绍: The publishing of CARPATHIAN JOURNAL of EARTH and ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES has started in 2006. The regularity of this magazine is biannual. The magazine will publish scientific works, in international purposes, in different areas of research, such as : geology, geography, environmental sciences, the environmental pollution and protection, environmental chemistry and physic, environmental biodegradation, climatic exchanges, fighting against natural disasters, protected areas, soil degradation, water quality, water supplies, sustainable development.
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