How do voters respond to party switching in Africa?

Abstract

ABSTRACT Are there electoral consequences for elected politicians who switch from one party to another? Existing research on this question discovered that switchers often perform worse in elections than non-switchers because voters are suspicious of their intentions, especially in older democracies. Nonetheless, few robust studies have been conducted on this in Africa amidst concerns of weak party institutionalization and voters’ passivism, despite the prevalence of switching on the continent and copious existing research on the issue on other continents. I conducted a nationwide representative survey gauging voters’ response to party switching and analysed an original dataset on party switching among African MPs, using Nigeria with over 200 cases of party defection within eight years as a case study. I discovered party switchers in Nigeria, Africa's biggest democracy, performed worse in elections compared to non-switchers, with significant implications for our understanding of voting behaviour in Africa.