Multimodel ensemble projection of photovoltaic power potential in China by the 2060s

Abstract

China's demand for solar energy has been growing rapidly to meet energy transformation targets. However, the potential of solar energy is affected by weather conditions and is expected to change under climate warming. Here, the authors project the photovoltaic (PV) power potential over China under low and high emission scenarios by the 2060s, taking advantage of meteorological variables from 24 CMIP6 models and 4 PV models with varied formats. The ensemble mean of these models yields an average PV power of 277.2 KWh m⁻² yr⁻¹ during 2004–2014, with a decreasing tendency from the west to east. By 2054–2064, the national average PV power potential is projected to increase by 2.29% under a low emission scenario but decrease by 0.43% under a high emission scenario. The emission control in the former scenario significantly enhances surface solar radiation and promotes PV power in the east. On the contrary, strong warming causes inhibitions to PV power generation under the high emission scenario. Extreme warming events on average decrease the PV power potential by 0.28% under the low emission scenario and 0.44% under the high emission scenario, doubling and tripling the present-day loss, respectively. The projections reveal large benefits of controlling emissions for the future solar energy in China due to both the clean atmosphere and the moderate warming.