Assessment of ship manoeuvring safety in waterway systems by relative navigational risk

Abstract

The safety of vessels navigating in the sea waterway system is ensured by fulfilling the acceptable restrictions called safe ship operation conditions in that system. The assessment of navigation safety is particularly important when the conditions for safe operation of ships in the waterway system are changed concerns increasing the maximum parameters of vessels, increasing the allowable hydrometeorological conditions or changing the minimum tug assistance. The article presents a method for assessing navigation safety when the conditions for the safe operation of vessels in the waterway system get changed. The method uses two indicators, which are difference in navigation risks and relative navigation risk. To determine the navigational risk, algorithms were developed for calculating the probability of accidents caused by the deterioration of navigation conditions and technical failure of ship equipment and tugs. Another algorithm was developed for calculating the consequences of the accidents that involve blocking a waterway by a ship anchoring in an emergency, grounding, impact of the ship against a port structure or moored ship and a collision with another ship in motion. The method developed for assessing navigation safety by means of relative navigation risk can be used in practice when changing the conditions for safe operation of vessels in the waterway system and when the system is modernized. Navigational safety management is a decision process that is implemented in the loop presented in the article. The acceptable risk is determined on the basis of vessel traffic intensity and ship parameters defined by safe operation conditions for a given waterway system. Relative navigational risk may be used in assessment and comparison of various conditions of safe ship operation. The probability of an accident caused by ship's moving outside the available navigable area due to technical failures of ship equipment or tugs is determined, depending on the type of port waterway and the manoeuvres performed.