{"title":"Comment: On the History and Limitations of Probability Updating","authors":"G. Shafer","doi":"10.1214/21-STS765A","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Gong and Meng show that we can gain insights into classical paradoxes about conditional probability by acknowledging that apparently precise probabilities live within a larger world of imprecise probability. They also show that the notion of updating becomes problematic in this larger world. A closer look at the historical development of the notion of updating can give us further insights into its limitations.","PeriodicalId":51172,"journal":{"name":"Statistical Science","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9000,"publicationDate":"2021-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Statistical Science","FirstCategoryId":"100","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1214/21-STS765A","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"STATISTICS & PROBABILITY","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
Gong and Meng show that we can gain insights into classical paradoxes about conditional probability by acknowledging that apparently precise probabilities live within a larger world of imprecise probability. They also show that the notion of updating becomes problematic in this larger world. A closer look at the historical development of the notion of updating can give us further insights into its limitations.
期刊介绍：
The central purpose of Statistical Science is to convey the richness, breadth and unity of the field by presenting the full range of contemporary statistical thought at a moderate technical level, accessible to the wide community of practitioners, researchers and students of statistics and probability.
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