The Regional Diagnosis of Onset and Demise of the Rainy Season over Tropical and Subtropical Australia

IF 1.6 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Earth Interactions Pub Date : 2023-03-13 DOI:10.1175/ei-d-22-0026.1
V. Misra, Shubham Dixit, C. Jayasankar
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Abstract

In this paper we introduce a novel strategy to robustly diagnose the onset and demise of the rainy season using daily observed rainfall over seven specific regions across Australia, as demarcated by the Natural Resource Management (NRM) of Australia. The methodology lies in developing an ensemble spread of the diagnosed onset/demise from randomly perturbing the observed daily timeseries of rainfall at synoptic scales to obtain a measure of the uncertainty of the diagnosis. Our results indicate that the spread of the ensemble in the diagnosis of the onset and demise dates of the rainy season is higher in the subtropical compared to the tropical regions. Secular change of earlier onset, later demise, longer length, and wetter season are also identified in many of these regions. The influence of PDO at decadal, ENSO, and Indian Ocean Dipole at interannual, and MJO at intraseasonal scales also reveal significant influence on the evolution of the rainy season over these regions in Australia. Most importantly, the co-variability of the onset date with the length of the season and seasonal rainfall anomaly of the season is highlighted as a valuable relationship that can be exploited for real time monitoring and providing an outlook of the forthcoming rainy season, which could serve some of the NRM regions.
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澳大利亚热带和亚热带雨季开始和结束的区域诊断
在本文中,我们介绍了一种新的策略,利用澳大利亚自然资源管理(NRM)划定的七个特定地区的每日观测降雨量,来稳健地诊断雨季的开始和结束。该方法通过在天气尺度上随机扰动观测到的每日降雨时间序列,得出诊断的开始/消失的总体传播,以获得诊断的不确定性的度量。我们的研究结果表明,与热带地区相比,在雨季开始和结束日期的诊断中,亚热带地区的集合传播率更高。在许多这些地区还发现了发病早、死亡晚、长度长和雨季多的长期变化。年代际PDO、年际ENSO、印度洋偶极子、季内MJO对这些地区的雨季演变也有显著影响。最重要的是,开始日期与季节长度和季节降雨异常的共变性被强调为一种有价值的关系,可以用于实时监测和提供即将到来的雨季的前景,这可以为一些NRM地区服务。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Earth Interactions
Earth Interactions 地学-地球科学综合
CiteScore
2.70
自引率
5.00%
发文量
16
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Publishes research on the interactions among the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, cryosphere, and lithosphere, including, but not limited to, research on human impacts, such as land cover change, irrigation, dams/reservoirs, urbanization, pollution, and landslides. Earth Interactions is a joint publication of the American Meteorological Society, American Geophysical Union, and American Association of Geographers.
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