Changes and Trends in the Current Relations Between Saudi Arabia and Israel

Song Niu, Tongyu Wu
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引用次数: 5

Abstract

Abstract The relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel have become increasingly public after the Trump administration took office in the US. Particularly, Saudi Arabia either holds inconsistent, ambiguous attitudes or gives short shrift to sensitive issues such as Jerusalem issue and the ‘Deal of the Century.’ Moreover, Saudi Arabia and Israel have been interacting with each other frequently in a public and official way, which further embodies this change in their relationship. The relationship between Saudi Arabia and Israel has a long history, and it has experienced four development stages: mutual isolation, secret contact, open contact, and intimate contact. The changes in the current Saudi-Israeli relations have realistic interests, open interaction, and practical cooperation. The changes in the Saudi-Israeli relations have taken place under the combined effect of the realistic logic of the common political and security dilemma, the transformation of their respective diplomatic strategies and the complementary economic advantages of both sides, as well as the overall environmental changes in the Middle East, the overall fragmentation of the Arab world, and the ups and downs of the US Middle East policy. Saudi Arabia and Israel have formed an anti-Iranian quasi-alliance, which has certain actual or potential impacts. In the long run, although the changes in the Saudi-Israeli relations are conducive to bilateral cooperation and development in diverse fields, they bring no advantage to the overall stability of the Arab world, and the contradictions within the Arab world will further deepen, which, for example, is represented by a breakthrough in diplomatic relations between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. Besides, geostrategic competition in the Middle East will become more intense and will not contribute to the Middle East peace process.
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当前沙特与以色列关系的变化与趋势
特朗普政府上台后,沙特与以色列的关系日益公开化。特别是,沙特阿拉伯要么态度不一致,模棱两可,要么对耶路撒冷问题和“世纪协议”等敏感问题置之不理。此外,沙特阿拉伯和以色列在公开和官方场合频繁互动,这进一步体现了两国关系的这种变化。沙特阿拉伯与以色列的关系历史悠久,经历了相互孤立、秘密接触、公开接触、亲密接触四个发展阶段。当前沙以关系的变化是现实的利益、开放的互动、务实的合作。沙以关系的变化是在共同的政治安全困境、各自外交战略的转变和双方经济优势互补的现实逻辑,以及中东地区整体环境的变化、阿拉伯世界的整体分裂、美国中东政策的起伏等因素的综合作用下发生的。沙特与以色列结成反伊朗准联盟,具有一定的实际或潜在影响。从长远来看,沙以关系的变化虽然有利于双方在各领域的合作与发展,但对阿拉伯世界的整体稳定没有任何好处,阿拉伯世界内部的矛盾将进一步深化,如以色列与阿联酋、巴林、苏丹、摩洛哥等国的外交关系出现突破。此外,中东地缘战略竞争将更加激烈,不利于中东和平进程。
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