A macroeconomic approach to global land use policy

Abstract

It is important to dedicate substantial parts of the global land supply to public good uses in the 21st century, for purposes of climate change management and biodiversity provision. But will it also be possible to meet the food requirements of 12 billion people while doing so? Using a macroeconomic model (MAVA), we demonstrate that it may be possible to provide both for food requirements and environmental services in the long run. We first show that it may be possible to provide for food requirements with very substantial constraints on the amount of land used in agriculture with relatively minor welfare losses. We then show that global policies that re-allocate labour across sectors may have the capacity for directing the economy toward reduced reliance on land in agriculture. Focusing on land management, research and development, and fertility choices may be the best way to meet these combined goals.