Opportunities and limitations of integrating computational and collaborative approaches to scenario planning

Abstract

In the context of changing global trends and growing uncertainties, creating and evaluating alternative future scenarios is crucial for urban and regional planning. Computational and collaborative approaches are two contemporary options for scenario planning. They have distinct roles and are often applied independently. This study investigates the integration of these two approaches, addressing a knowledge gap by explicitly integrating a Cellular Automata-based model within the collaborative geodesign framework. It assesses the integration process and scenario planning outcomes through a resilience planning case study. The key finding from this experiment is that integrating the information generated by a computational approach with the transparency and reliability inherent in a collaborative approach can enhance the end-user's scenario planning experience. The integration is also perceived to have positive effects on scenario outcomes, which is particularly relevant for joint evidence-based and collaborative resilience planning in cities and regions. However, the study also highlights the need for further investigation into the options for integrating computational methods into collaborative approaches and into the utility of integration in real-world planning with practitioners and the community.