Diffusion of digital technologies in the face of external shocks: The case of the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of external shocks on the spread of digital technologies. Using the example of the COVID-19 pandemic, we identify and describe four patterns that reflect the uneven response of different digital technologies to external conditions undergoing transformation. The patterns differ in both the magnitude of the pandemic’s impact and the timing of the resulting effects. Video conferencing, business continuity and telemedicine services showed a dramatic increase in demand at the beginning of COVID-19 and a gradual decline in the later stages. A more moderate response in the early weeks of the pandemic is typical of e-commerce and online entertainment. Delayed effects are seen in digital logistics services and digital currencies, which reacted much later than other technologies. Finally, a slow decline in significance after the pandemic began has been observed for biometrics and cybersecurity technologies. Similar patterns may describe the transformation of the spread of digital technologies not only under the influence of COVID-19, but also in the face of dramatic economic and social changes of other origins.