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Modeling and optimization of strategies for making individual decisions in multi-agent socio-economic systems with the use of machine learning 利用机器学习对多智能体社会经济系统中的个体决策策略进行建模和优化
IF 0.6 Pub Date : 2023-06-30 DOI: 10.17323/2587-814x.2023.2.7.19
A. Akopov
This article presents a new approach to modeling and optimizing individual decision-making strategies in multi-agent socio-economic systems (MSES). This approach is based on the synthesis of agent-based modeling methods, machine learning and genetic optimization algorithms. A procedure for the synthesis and training of artificial neural networks (ANNs) that simulate the functionality of MSES and provide an approximation of the values of its objective characteristics has been developed. The feature of the two-step procedure is the combined use of particle swarm optimization methods (to determine the optimal values of hyperparameters) and the Adam machine learning algorithm (to compute weight coefficients of the ANN). The use of such ANN-based surrogate models in parallel multi-agent real-coded genetic algorithms (MA-RCGA) makes it possible to raise substantially the time-efficiency of the evolutionary search for optimal solutions. We have conducted numerical experiments that confirm a significant improvement in the performance of MA-RCGA, which periodically uses the ANN-based surrogate-model to approximate the values of the objective and fitness functions. A software framework has been designed that consists of the original (reference) agent-based model of trade interactions, the ANN-based surrogate model and the MA-RCGA genetic algorithm. At the same time, the software libraries FLAME GPU, OpenNN (Open Neural Networks Library), etc., agent-based modeling and machine learning methods are used. The system we developed can be used by responsible managers.
本文提出了多智能体社会经济系统(MSES)中个体决策策略建模和优化的新方法。该方法是基于基于agent的建模方法、机器学习和遗传优化算法的综合。人工神经网络(ann)的合成和训练程序,模拟MSES的功能,并提供其客观特征值的近似值已经开发出来。两步过程的特点是结合使用粒子群优化方法(确定超参数的最优值)和Adam机器学习算法(计算人工神经网络的权重系数)。在并行多智能体实数编码遗传算法(MA-RCGA)中使用这种基于人工神经网络的代理模型,可以大大提高进化搜索最优解的时间效率。我们已经进行了数值实验,证实了MA-RCGA的性能有显着改善,它定期使用基于ann的代理模型来近似目标函数和适应度函数的值。设计了一个软件框架,该框架由原始的(参考)基于代理的贸易交互模型、基于人工神经网络的代理模型和MA-RCGA遗传算法组成。同时使用了FLAME GPU、OpenNN (Open Neural Networks Library)等软件库,以及基于agent的建模和机器学习方法。我们开发的系统可供负责任的管理者使用。
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引用次数: 0
An intelligent method for generating a list of job profile requirements based on neural network language models using ESCO taxonomy and online job corpus 一种基于神经网络语言模型的基于ESCO分类和在线职位语料库的职位简介需求列表智能生成方法
IF 0.6 Pub Date : 2023-06-30 DOI: 10.17323/2587-814x.2023.2.71.84
I. Nikolaev
Online recruitment systems have accumulated a huge amount of data on the real labor market in recent years. Of particular interest to the study are the data on the real requirements of the labor market contained in the texts of online vacancies, as well as the process of extracting and structuring them for further analysis and use. The stage of compiling an up-to-date list of requirements for a position profile in the recruitment process is very time-consuming and requires a large amount of effort from an HR specialist related to monitoring changes in entire industries and professions, as well as analyzing relevance of existing requirements on the market. In this article, the author proposes a conceptual model of a recommendation system that allows one to reduce the burden on an HR specialist at the stage of forming an up-to-date list of requirements for a position profile in the recruitment process. The model is based on a combination of the following components: a graph model of labor market requirements based on the ESCO taxonomy adapted for the Russian language; and an intelligent method of forming recommendations for compiling an up-to-date list of requirements in the recruitment process based on neural network models of the language on the architecture of transformers, ESCO skills taxonomy and corpus online vacancies of the Russian labor market. The article also provides a conceptual algorithm for the work of the recommendation system and possible options for recommendations on updating the list of requirements of the position profile in the recruitment process based on an analysis of the needs of the real labor market.
近年来,在线招聘系统积累了大量真实劳动力市场的数据。这项研究特别感兴趣的是在线空缺职位的文本中所载的关于劳动力市场实际需求的数据,以及提取和组织这些数据以供进一步分析和使用的过程。在招聘过程中,编制职位简介的最新要求清单是非常耗时的,需要人力资源专家花费大量精力来监控整个行业和专业的变化,以及分析市场上现有要求的相关性。在本文中,作者提出了一个推荐系统的概念模型,该模型可以减轻人力资源专家在招聘过程中形成最新职位简介要求列表阶段的负担。该模型是基于以下组成部分的组合:一个劳动力市场需求的图形模型,该模型基于经调整的ESCO分类,适用于俄语;以及一种形成建议的智能方法,用于编制招聘过程中的最新要求列表,该建议基于基于转换器架构的语言神经网络模型、ESCO技能分类和俄罗斯劳动力市场在线空缺语料库。本文还在分析实际劳动力市场需求的基础上,提出了推荐系统工作的概念算法,以及在招聘过程中更新职位简介要求列表的推荐方案。
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引用次数: 0
A knowledge management system in the strategic development of universities 高校战略发展中的知识管理系统
IF 0.6 Pub Date : 2023-06-30 DOI: 10.17323/2587-814x.2023.2.20.40
N. Dneprovskaya, Innessa Shevtsova
The purpose of this study is a conceptual description of the implementation of knowledge management systems (KMS) as a mechanism for universities’ strategic development. Knowledge management (KM) practice from around the world proved the positive influence of KMS on productivity of educational institutions. The theoretical provisions and concept for KMS are determined based on an analysis of international experience of KMS use in higher education (HE). Theoretical provisions consist of 1) the staff activities as an object of KM and knowledge because of these activities, 2) the specificity of HE restrains a transfer of the KM mechanism from business to HE, and 3) the uniqueness of each university determines the structure and content of KMS for strategic development. The KM process in HE is reflected in the Socialization-Externalization-Combination-Internalization (SECI) model, where each stage contains a list of staff activities and a set of digital services. The novelty of the KM process model in HE is that knowledge flows in a wave, not a spiral. In this motion, knowledge passes from uncodified to partly codified and codified form. The study demonstrates that knowledge can go the from stage of partly codified to uncodified for revision, and knowledge flow can stop at any stage. The advantage of the concept we designed is the ability to control the flow of knowledge before it takes the codified form of a document. The digital environment for KM first allows management to control faculty activities at the initial stage of uncodified knowledge through measurement of activities, and then to estimate the knowledge flow itself. The gathered indicators help to make decisions to motivate or restrain faculty. The university management gets a complete picture of faculty activities with knowledge and the intensity of knowledge flow in training courses and educational programs.
本研究的目的是概念性描述知识管理系统(KMS)作为大学战略发展机制的实施。世界各国的知识管理实践证明了知识管理对教育机构生产力的积极影响。在分析国际高等教育运用知识管理系统经验的基础上,确定了知识管理系统的理论规定和概念。理论规定包括:1)员工活动作为知识管理的对象,以及因为这些活动而产生的知识;2)高等教育的特殊性限制了知识管理机制从企业向高等教育的转移;3)每所大学的独特性决定了知识管理战略发展的结构和内容。HE中的知识管理过程反映在社会化-外部化-组合-内部化(SECI)模型中,其中每个阶段包含员工活动列表和一组数字服务。高等教育中知识管理过程模型的新颖之处在于知识的流动是波浪状的,而不是螺旋状的。在这个过程中,知识从未编纂的形式过渡到部分编纂和编纂的形式。研究表明,知识可以从部分法典化的阶段到未法典化的阶段进行修订,知识流动可以在任何阶段停止。我们设计的概念的优点是能够在知识以文档的形式编纂之前控制知识的流动。知识管理的数字环境首先允许管理层通过对活动的测量来控制未编码知识的初始阶段的教师活动,然后对知识流本身进行评估。收集到的指标有助于做出激励或约束教师的决定。大学管理层可以全面了解教师的知识活动以及培训课程和教育计划中知识流动的强度。
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引用次数: 0
The problem of interpretation, differentiation and classification of digital products 数字产品的解释、区分和分类问题
IF 0.6 Pub Date : 2023-06-30 DOI: 10.17323/2587-814x.2023.2.55.70
Ansel Shaidullin
Digital innovative products often become a significant factor in the revision of companies’ business strategies and influence consumer preferences. A key component in the process of formulating such strategies is understanding the implications underlying the attributes of digital products. This requires a good understanding of their nature and characteristics. To date, there is no solid basis for classifying various digital products according to their inherent characteristics. This paper presents a new interpretation of “digital products” based on the analysis of 2954 scientific articles from the Scopus database. It discusses the problems of differentiation of digital products from other types of products (such as “cyber-physical products,” “digitized products,” “smart products,” etc.). We also developed a new classification of digital products by the method of highlighting their key attributes. The purpose of the study is to develop an advanced classification of digital products based on their differentiation from other types of products. The classification we constructed based on the principles of differentiation will allow innovators and businessmen to create more profound and more advanced business models.
数字创新产品往往成为公司商业战略修订和影响消费者偏好的重要因素。制定此类战略过程中的一个关键组成部分是了解数字产品属性背后的含义。这需要对它们的性质和特点有一个很好的了解。到目前为止,还没有根据各种数字产品的固有特征对其进行分类的坚实基础。本文在分析Scopus数据库中2954篇科学文章的基础上,对“数字产品”提出了一种新的解释。它讨论了数字产品与其他类型产品(如“网络物理产品”、“数字化产品”和“智能产品”等)的差异化问题。我们还通过突出其关键属性的方法对数字产品进行了新的分类。本研究的目的是根据数字产品与其他类型产品的差异,对数字产品进行高级分类。我们基于差异化原则构建的分类将允许创新者和商人创造更深刻、更先进的商业模式。
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引用次数: 0
Decision support technology for a seller on a marketplace in a competitive environment 在竞争环境中为市场上的卖家提供决策支持技术
IF 0.6 Pub Date : 2023-06-30 DOI: 10.17323/2587-814x.2023.2.41.54
M. Matveev, Natalya Aleynikova, M. Titova
This article deals with the problem of improving the effectiveness of a marketplace. The stakeholders of a marketplace are buyers and sellers. The objects are the aggregate of homogeneous products. The effectiveness of the trading platform, which can be characterized by the number of transactions made, will depend on how sufficiently the sellers put up offers. The paper looks at mathematical models to support the decision-making of the seller in making such offers. Focusing not only on the buyer demand but also on the presence of competitors on the site is a distinguishing feature of the models. To describe the competition, the apparatus of game theory is offered, namely the normal form of the game with a bimatrix model with two players: the seller – customer of service and the coalition of other sellers. To match offer and demand, as well as to find the probability of a transaction, fuzzy set theory and aggregation using the Choquet integral are used.
本文讨论了提高市场有效性的问题。市场的利益相关者是买方和卖方。物体是同质产品的集合体。交易平台的有效性可以通过交易数量来表征,这将取决于卖家报价的充分程度。本文着眼于数学模型,以支持卖方在做出此类报价时的决策。不仅关注买家需求,还关注网站上竞争对手的存在,这是这些车型的一个显著特点。为了描述竞争,提供了博弈论的工具,即具有两个参与者的双矩阵模型的博弈的正规形式:服务的卖方-客户和其他卖方的联盟。为了匹配报价和需求,以及找到交易的概率,使用了模糊集理论和使用Choquet积分的聚合。
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引用次数: 0
The present and future of the digital transformation of real estate: A systematic review of smart real estate 房地产数字化转型的现状与未来:智能房地产的系统回顾
IF 0.6 Pub Date : 2023-06-30 DOI: 10.17323/2587-814x.2023.2.85.97
Feng Wang
The contribution of the real estate industry to the global and regional economy is remarkable, yet in today’s evolving digital technology and digital economy, the digital transformation of the real estate industry is lagging behind other industries. This is, on the one hand, due to the solidified processes and systems linked to the upstream and downstream real estate industries, and, on the other hand, due to the fact that digital technology disrupts traditional ways of doing business, making the industry full of uncertainty. The digital transformation of the real estate industry is a broad and emerging concept. Various related research fields are concerned with the penetration and application of different innovative technologies to the industry. This study provides a systematic review focusing on the field of smart real estate using the bibliometric analysis approach under the guidance of PRISMA. The bibliometric analyses were performed in RStudio by utilizing 22 scientific documents indexed in Scopus and Web of Science that were published from 2012 to 2022. The findings suggest that: (i) smart real estate research is still a new but rapidly emerging field; (ii) only limited academic institutions from a few countries, such as the University of New South Wales in Australia, have shown significant contributions; (iii) the research exhibits specific collaborative network characteristics, leading to a high concentration of authors and citations; and (iv) data-driven topics such as “machine learning,” “information management,” “data analytics” and “big data” indicate a high degree of research density and centrality.
房地产行业对全球和区域经济的贡献是显著的,但在数字技术和数字经济不断发展的今天,房地产行业的数字化转型滞后于其他行业。这一方面是由于房地产上下游行业的流程和体系固化,另一方面是由于数字技术颠覆了传统的经营方式,使行业充满了不确定性。房地产行业的数字化转型是一个广泛而新兴的概念。各种相关的研究领域都关注不同的创新技术在工业中的渗透和应用。本研究在PRISMA的指导下,运用文献计量学分析方法对智能房地产领域进行了系统综述。文献计量学分析在RStudio中进行,利用在Scopus和Web of Science中检索的2012年至2022年发表的22篇科学文献。研究结果表明:(1)智能房地产研究仍然是一个新兴但迅速崛起的领域;(ii)只有少数国家的有限学术机构,如澳大利亚的新南威尔士大学,做出了重大贡献;(3)研究呈现出特定的协同网络特征,作者和被引频次高度集中;(iv)数据驱动的主题,如“机器学习”、“信息管理”、“数据分析”和“大数据”,表明研究密度和中心性很高。
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引用次数: 1
Diffusion of digital technologies in the face of external shocks: The case of the COVID-19 pandemic 面对外部冲击的数字技术扩散:以新冠肺炎疫情为例
IF 0.6 Pub Date : 2023-03-31 DOI: 10.17323/2587-814x.2023.1.37.52
R. Shcherbakov, Sofya Privorotskaya, K. Vishnevskiy
This paper investigates the impact of external shocks on the spread of digital technologies. Using the example of the COVID-19 pandemic, we identify and describe four patterns that reflect the uneven response of different digital technologies to external conditions undergoing transformation. The patterns differ in both the magnitude of the pandemic’s impact and the timing of the resulting effects. Video conferencing, business continuity and telemedicine services showed a dramatic increase in demand at the beginning of COVID-19 and a gradual decline in the later stages. A more moderate response in the early weeks of the pandemic is typical of e-commerce and online entertainment. Delayed effects are seen in digital logistics services and digital currencies, which reacted much later than other technologies. Finally, a slow decline in significance after the pandemic began has been observed for biometrics and cybersecurity technologies. Similar patterns may describe the transformation of the spread of digital technologies not only under the influence of COVID-19, but also in the face of dramatic economic and social changes of other origins.
本文研究了外部冲击对数字技术传播的影响。以新冠肺炎疫情为例,我们确定并描述了四种模式,这些模式反映了不同数字技术对正在转型的外部条件的不均衡反应。这种模式在疫情影响的程度和由此产生的影响的时间上都有所不同。视频会议、业务连续性和远程医疗服务在新冠肺炎开始时需求急剧增加,后期逐渐下降。在疫情的最初几周,电子商务和在线娱乐的反应较为温和。延迟效应出现在数字物流服务和数字货币中,它们的反应比其他技术晚得多。最后,在疫情开始后,生物识别和网络安全技术的重要性缓慢下降。类似的模式可能描述了数字技术传播的转变,不仅是在新冠肺炎的影响下,而且面对其他起源的巨大经济和社会变化。
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引用次数: 0
Entropy approach to the analysis of banks’ balance sheets 熵法分析银行资产负债表
IF 0.6 Pub Date : 2023-03-31 DOI: 10.17323/2587-814x.2023.1.53.65
V. Matokhin, A. Sigal
Accounting ensures the collection and systematization of documented information about the facts of the economic life of enterprises and organizations. The information collected is systematized and formalized in various forms of reporting. One of the key forms of reporting is the balance sheet. The balance sheet is based on the principle of double entry, according to which each change in the financial resources of the organization is reflected in at least two accounts related assets and liabilities. Thus, the condition of the balance of the volumes of the generalized values of assets and liabilities is realized. The control element of the balance sheet is the equality of the values of assets and liabilities. However, this control element does not allow us to identify the systemic difference (diversity) of balance sheets with equality of distributed funds. Namely, the equality condition is integral in nature and its fulfillment is not related to the specific nature of item-by-item distributions, since, at a given size of the total cost of the balance sheet, the condition can be fulfilled by various options for the distribution of financial resources by assets and liabilities. Therefore, within the framework of this article, an attempt has been made to introduce a new control element of the balance sheet, taking into account the uneven distribution of financial resources by assets and liabilities of credit and financial organizations.
会计确保收集和系统化有关企业和组织经济生活事实的记录信息。收集到的信息以各种报告形式系统化和正式化。报告的主要形式之一是资产负债表。资产负债表是基于复式入账原则的,根据复式入账原则,组织财务资源的每一次变化都反映在至少两个与账户相关的资产和负债中。因此,资产和负债的广义价值的数量平衡的条件得以实现。资产负债表的控制要素是资产和负债的价值相等。然而,这一控制因素不允许我们识别资产负债表与分配资金平等的系统差异(多样性)。也就是说,平等条件本质上是不可分割的,其实现与逐项分配的具体性质无关,因为在资产负债表总成本的给定规模下,可以通过按资产和负债分配金融资源的各种选择来实现该条件。因此,在本条的框架内,考虑到信贷和金融组织的资产和负债对金融资源的分配不均,试图在资产负债表中引入一个新的控制要素。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of ICT on inter-organizational knowledge sharing for SMEs growth 信息通信技术对中小企业成长中组织间知识共享的影响
IF 0.6 Pub Date : 2023-03-31 DOI: 10.17323/2587-814x.2023.1.66.85
It is common knowledge that information and communication technologies (ICTs) have made continuous inroads in the knowledge management field; thus, this study is modeled to examine the impact of ICTs on inter-organizational knowledge sharing (IOKS) and its subsequent effect on the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The study adopts a descriptive survey design, using the quantitative research approach. Using the simple random sampling technique, a web-based questionnaire was used to collect data from 187 respondents. Results showed that IOKS among SMEs is not carried out to a great extent, which means that it is not a common practice among SMEs. Findings showed that less than half of the SMEs used training programs, internship programs, research collaboration and workshops for IOKS. It further showed that IOKS enhances sales, productivity, profit, organizational assets and equity. This study provides evidence of how ICT systems/tools have been used in IOKS and their impact on the growth of SMEs.
众所周知,信息和通信技术(ict)在知识管理领域取得了不断的进展;因此,本研究通过建模来检验信息通信技术对组织间知识共享(IOKS)的影响及其对中小企业(SMEs)成长的后续影响。本研究采用描述性调查设计,采用定量研究方法。采用简单随机抽样技术,采用基于网络的问卷调查方式,对187名受访者进行数据收集。结果表明,中小企业的IOKS在很大程度上没有得到实施,这意味着IOKS在中小企业中并不普遍。调查结果显示,只有不到一半的中小企业采用了培训计划、实习计划、研究合作和讲习班。研究进一步表明,IOKS提高了销售额、生产率、利润、组织资产和权益。本研究提供了信息通信技术系统/工具如何在IOKS中使用及其对中小企业增长的影响的证据。
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引用次数: 0
Predicting customer churn based on changes in their behavior patterns 根据客户行为模式的变化预测客户流失
IF 0.6 Pub Date : 2023-03-31 DOI: 10.17323/2587-814x.2023.1.7.17
Yury Zelenkov, A. Suchkova
Customer retention is one of the most important tasks of a business, and it is extremely important to allocate retention resources according to the potential profitability of the customer. Most often the problem of predicting customer churn is solved based on the RFM (Recency, Frequency, Monetary) model. This paper proposes a way to extend the RFM model with estimates of the probability of changes in customer behavior. Based on an analysis of data relating to 33 918 clients of a large Russian retailer for 2019–2020, it is shown that there are recurring patterns of change in their behavior over a single year. Information about these patterns is used to calculate the necessary probability estimates. Incorporating these data into a predictive model based on logistic regression increases prediction accuracy by more than 10% on the metrics AUC and geometric mean. It is also shown that this approach has limitations related to the disruption of behavioral patterns by external shocks, such as the lockdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic in April 2020. The paper also proposes a way to identify these shocks, making it possible to forecast degradation in the predictive ability of the model.
客户保留是企业最重要的任务之一,根据客户的潜在盈利能力分配保留资源是极其重要的。大多数情况下,预测客户流失的问题是基于RFM(Recency,Frequency,Monetary)模型来解决的。本文提出了一种通过估计客户行为变化的概率来扩展RFM模型的方法。基于对2019年至2020年俄罗斯一家大型零售商的33918名客户的数据分析,结果表明,他们的行为在一年内反复发生变化。关于这些模式的信息用于计算必要的概率估计。将这些数据合并到基于逻辑回归的预测模型中,可以将AUC和几何平均值的预测精度提高10%以上。研究还表明,这种方法与外部冲击对行为模式的破坏有关,例如2020年4月新冠肺炎大流行导致的封锁。本文还提出了一种识别这些冲击的方法,使预测模型的预测能力下降成为可能。
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引用次数: 0
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