Water security and agricultural systems in the Galapagos Islands: vulnerabilities under uncertain future climate and land use pathways

IF 2.6 Q2 WATER RESOURCES Frontiers in Water Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI:10.3389/frwa.2023.1245207
H. Paltan, Fátima L. Benítez, Manuel Narvaez, Cristina Mateus, Carlos F. Mena
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Abstract

The Galapagos Islands, a hotspot of ecological richness, face challenging climatic and development conditions which undermine regional water security. Yet, the way by which these conditions may change in the future is highly uncertain. In this study, we applied for the first time an uncertainty-based approach in the Galapagos Islands to understand thresholds and potential scenarios of risks to water security of agricultural catchments in the Galapagos Island. We applied a water systems model to the agricultural catchments as well as climate and land use scenarios to estimate physical changes in water availability and implications for drought and extreme flow thresholds. Our results highlight the key role of baseflow and its important sensitivity to precipitation changes in determining water security states in the Islands. In fact, a decrease in just about 25% of total water flows, from historical conditions, in the Islands would drive drought conditions resembling those of the emergency state of 2016. We also note that under a land use scenario which promotes sustainable practices, the robustness of the Islands to climate variations increases. Our study then provides the basis for an application of uncertainty-based approaches to enhance resilience of the agricultural water systems as well as other systems. Our results also emphasize the need to design flexible and comprehensive policies in the water, agricultural and interconnected sectors which consider the interlinkages of climate with other social and economic variables.
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加拉帕戈斯群岛的水安全和农业系统:在不确定的未来气候和土地利用途径下的脆弱性
加拉帕戈斯群岛是生态丰富的热点,面临着挑战性的气候和发展条件,破坏了区域水安全。然而,这些情况在未来的变化方式是非常不确定的。在这项研究中,我们首次在加拉帕戈斯群岛应用了一种基于不确定性的方法,以了解加拉帕戈斯岛农业集水区水安全风险的阈值和潜在情景。我们将水系统模型应用于农业集水区以及气候和土地利用情景,以估计水资源可用性的物理变化以及对干旱和极端流量阈值的影响。我们的研究结果强调了基流及其对降水变化的重要敏感性在决定群岛水安全状态方面的关键作用。事实上,与历史条件相比,群岛总水量仅减少约25%,就会导致类似于2016年紧急状态的干旱情况。我们还注意到,在促进可持续做法的土地利用情景下,岛屿对气候变化的稳健性增强。然后,我们的研究为应用基于不确定性的方法来提高农业供水系统和其他系统的复原力提供了基础。我们的研究结果还强调,需要在水、农业和相互关联的部门制定灵活和全面的政策,考虑气候与其他社会和经济变量的相互关联。
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来源期刊
Frontiers in Water
Frontiers in Water WATER RESOURCES-
CiteScore
4.00
自引率
6.90%
发文量
224
审稿时长
13 weeks
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