{"title":"Income and differential fertility: evidence from oil price shocks","authors":"Abebe Hailemariam","doi":"10.1017/dem.2022.8","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"\n This paper examines the effect of national income on the total fertility rate (children born per woman). We estimate the effects on fertility of shocks to national per capita income using plausibly exogenous variations in oil price shock as an instrument for income and using instrumental variable generalized quantile regressions (IV-GQR). Using data for a panel of 122 countries spanning the period 1965–2020, our results show that national per capita income has generally a negative and significant effect on the total fertility rate. Looking at the entire spectrum of the fertility distribution, the IV-GQR estimates exhibit considerable heterogeneity in the impact of income on fertility. The income elasticity of fertility is relatively low at the upper tail of the distribution (for countries with high fertility) compared to the value at the median.","PeriodicalId":43286,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Demographic Economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3000,"publicationDate":"2022-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Demographic Economics","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1017/dem.2022.8","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"DEMOGRAPHY","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
This paper examines the effect of national income on the total fertility rate (children born per woman). We estimate the effects on fertility of shocks to national per capita income using plausibly exogenous variations in oil price shock as an instrument for income and using instrumental variable generalized quantile regressions (IV-GQR). Using data for a panel of 122 countries spanning the period 1965–2020, our results show that national per capita income has generally a negative and significant effect on the total fertility rate. Looking at the entire spectrum of the fertility distribution, the IV-GQR estimates exhibit considerable heterogeneity in the impact of income on fertility. The income elasticity of fertility is relatively low at the upper tail of the distribution (for countries with high fertility) compared to the value at the median.
期刊介绍：
Demographic variables such as fertility, mortality, migration and family structures notably respond to economic incentives and in turn affect the economic development of societies. Journal of Demographic Economics welcomes both empirical and theoretical papers on issues relevant to Demographic Economics with a preference for combining abstract economic or demographic models together with data to highlight major mechanisms. The journal was first published in 1929 as Bulletin de l’Institut des Sciences Economiques. It later became known as Louvain Economic Review, and continued till 2014 to publish under this title. In 2015, it moved to Cambridge University Press, increased its international character and changed its focus exclusively to demographic economics.
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