Impacts of the Covid-19 crisis on unemployment in Slovakia: a statistically created counterfactual approach using the time series analysis

Abstract

Research background: The current health crisis, which began to take shape in mid-March 2020 due to the massive spread of the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, has shaped the face of the Slovak labour market the most. Slovakia, similarly, to other countries in the world, has operated with several non-pharmaceutical anti-pandemic measures taken by the government to reduce the spread of the virus or reverse adverse developments. On the other hand, these measures have frozen production, and business activities of companies annulled not only the number of physical meetings with business collaborators but also business contracts themselves. Consequently, the demand for new labour has decreased, and in many cases, redundancies have occurred. Purpose of the article: The study aims to develop a comprehensive and detailed analysis of unemployment and its development in Slovakia, during the 1st and 2nd wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, determine the extent to which the anti-pandemic measures have affected the Slovak labour market, and identify the most affected groups of unemployed. Methods: To analyze the impact of the anti-pandemic measures on the unemployment situation in Slovakia, we applied the approach where the statistically created hypothetical state of the absence of the pandemic was compared with the real state as the consequence of the pandemic. The hypothetical state was modelled by the autoregressive 1st order or one-dimensional time series model with a linear trend and seasonability. Findings & value added: The results of the analysis identify the groups of the population, mostly affected by the Covid-19 pandemic together with the quantification of the impact on unemployment. The findings of quantification of the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the Slovak labour market can be further used in creating targeted measures aimed at supporting unemployed individuals or at the sustainability of already existing jobs and in other governmental economic and social decisions.