{"title":"Recalibrating probabilistic forecasts to improve their accuracy","authors":"Ying Han, D. Budescu","doi":"10.1017/s1930297500009049","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"\n The accuracy of human forecasters is often reduced because of incomplete\n information and cognitive biases that affect the judges. One approach to\n improve the accuracy of the forecasts is to recalibrate them by means of\n non-linear transformations that are sensitive to the direction and the\n magnitude of the biases. Previous work on recalibration has focused on\n binary forecasts. We propose an extension of this approach by developing an\n algorithm that uses a single free parameter to recalibrate complete\n subjective probability distributions. We illustrate the approach with data\n from the quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) conducted by the\n European Central Bank (ECB), document the potential benefits of this\n approach, and show how it can be used in practical applications.","PeriodicalId":1,"journal":{"name":"Accounts of Chemical Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":16.4000,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Accounts of Chemical Research","FirstCategoryId":"102","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1930297500009049","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"化学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Abstract
The accuracy of human forecasters is often reduced because of incomplete
information and cognitive biases that affect the judges. One approach to
improve the accuracy of the forecasts is to recalibrate them by means of
non-linear transformations that are sensitive to the direction and the
magnitude of the biases. Previous work on recalibration has focused on
binary forecasts. We propose an extension of this approach by developing an
algorithm that uses a single free parameter to recalibrate complete
subjective probability distributions. We illustrate the approach with data
from the quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) conducted by the
European Central Bank (ECB), document the potential benefits of this
approach, and show how it can be used in practical applications.
期刊介绍：
Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance.
Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.
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