The IMF COVID-19 Surveillance Monitor

Abstract

Promoting stability is a core component of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) surveillance’s mandate. The Covid-19 pandemic hit almost every country worldwide. This article evaluates whether and how the IMF surveillance documents in the aftermath of the health and economic crisis have identified risks and mitigation measures to improve health outcomes, protect vulnerable people and firms, and address climate change. Through the IMF COVID-19 Surveillance Monitor, a textual analysis index, the authors found that these issues received relatively little attention in Article IV consultations in 2019, with fiscal issues dominating the discussion. However, the consultations conducted in 2020 show some timely incremental shifts and more attention toward health systems and protecting vulnerable matters. While climate change has become a key part of senior IMF official narratives, it has not had a significant presence in surveillance activities. The techniques and indices developed here can help the IMF improve its surveillance policy.