Predicting potential locations of ancient settlements using GIS and Weights-Of-Evidence method (case study: North-East of Iran)

Abstract

Using the GIS and the Weight-Of-Evidence method, this research prepared a potential map of ancient sites for North-East of Iran. First, some related criteria were selected, and then, using statistical methods, the importance of each causative factor was determined. For example, the slope direction was not statistically significant in the study area. Finally, six combinations with mutually conditional independent variables were chosen. The combination included slope, elevation, and distance from vegetated areas has the highest predictive value of 84.75% for training and 84.12% for test points. In other words, the potential map with the most predictive value can be extractable in the North-East of the country, using the three criteria obtained from the remote sensing data. According to the calculations, the rivers and villages positively affect finding archaeological sites within 1000 and 1500 m. However, the chance of finding ancient points is decreased going farther than 600 m from vegetated areas and slopes greater than 13 degrees.