Using conjoint analysis to incorporate heterogeneous preferences into multimodal transit trip simulations

Abstract

Urban transportation systems involve thousands of individuals making choices between routes with multiple modes and transfers. For transportation system simulations to produce realistic results, modelers need to incorporate these users and their choices. Choice‐based conjoint surveys provide an attractive solution for obtaining flexible utility models that can be used to predict choices for a wide variety of trips. In this study, we demonstrate an example using conjoint survey data of commuter mode choice in the Washington, D.C. metro area (N = 1651). We sample commuters who primarily drive and those that take transit. We examine preferences for different types of multimodal trips, including those with intramodal and intermodel transfers. We find that trips involving a bus transfer are the least preferred while both drivers and transit users both value metro similarly to driving. We also find that walking during transit trips is an important barrier, with the travel time penalty for walking being 60% higher than that of time in a vehicle. Our findings highlight the significance of accounting for differences in modal transfer types in transportation system simulations. Reducing arrival time uncertainty was not a significant factor in commuter mode choice, and commuters' value of time was similar across all vehicle types, suggesting that increasing the relative speed of transit modes may only have a marginal effect on commuter substitution away from personal vehicles.