Derisking Developmentalism: A Tale of Green Hydrogen

Abstract

In the global race to scale up green hydrogen, a renewed appetite for the visible hand of the state once again promises to expand developmental space for low- and middle-income countries. On the African continent, several countries have announced green industrialization ambitions that rely on mobilizing, through various ‘derisking’ schemes, private (institutional) capital looking for investible opportunities. To examine the transformative potential of this new derisking developmentalism, this article extends the critical macrofinance lens to include Thandika Mkandawire's theorization of post-independence African developmental states. Using Namibia as an illustration, it argues that an assumption of ‘divine coincidence’ creates the ideological space for the state to forge derisking blocs but structurally weakens its ability to discipline private capital into pursuing green industrialization. As (foreign) capital dominates the state‒capital relationship in derisking developmentalism, the new green rules written by powerful investors and global North governments threaten to transform global South countries into consumers of green hydrogen technology and generators of yield for portfolio investors, thus reinforcing the structural drivers of their ongoing external debt vulnerabilities. Instead, countries should experiment with green public ownership and partnerships that discipline local green industries. Such strategies require replacing the Wall Street Consensus with a supportive global macrofinancial framework the authors call ‘Green Bandung Woods’.