The current climate changes in Belarusian Polesje region: factors, consequences, projections

Abstract

The study presents the pattern of climatic changes in the region of the Belarusian Polesje in current period and shows peculiarities of agricultural conditions on drained peat bogs during last decades. Also the climatic projections in the study region are presented with emphasize on agricultural indices. The climate changes in the region are synchronized with a global climate warming, and expressed more significant on the natural than drained areas. But at the same time a severe and extreme conditions for vegetation growth are more evident on the drained peat bogs. The precipitation sums exceeding have been noticed in the eastern part of the Belarusian Polesje in comparison with western part. The amelioration, deforestation and decrease of underlying surface roughness have led to wind speed growth and decrease of precipitation. The observed climate change tendencies will be kept in the current century. The growth of air temperature will continue, the largest deviations of the air temperature will be noticed in winter season. The deviations of minimal temperature will exceed deviations of maximal and mean temperature. The precipitation wills growth, but deviations will be heterogeneous during the current century. The largest growth of precipitation will be observed in winter season due to the rainfall of moderate intensity increase. But in the same time the duration of the drought periods will increase in summer.