Potential tipping points for climate change adaptation costs

IF 3.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Climate and Development Pub Date : 2023-01-22 DOI:10.1080/17565529.2022.2151306
G. Midgley, R. A. Chapman, J. Araujo
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Abstract

ABSTRACT The achievement of adaptation objectives will require increased investment with the increasing warming, but adaptation cost curves are not yet well quantified. We propose here that tipping points (sharp increases) in adaptation costs may emerge as key warming levels are exceeded, with important implications for policymakers and planners. We explore this proposition using selected African agriculture and ecosystem-based livelihoods examples, considering how adaptation responses might progress from a coping phase (with low-cost efforts), through a tipping point into a phase of proactive or planned (‘incremental’) adaptation that requires a sharp increase in adaptation investment, and through a further tipping point into a technology and capital-intensive (‘transformative’) phase requiring a further sharp increase in investment. Tipping points in adaptation costs may result as a series of limits to adaptation are breached, but the associated sharp cost transitions are not well recognized in the literature. Adaptation research could usefully focus on identifying the likely timing of these tipping points and in what sectors they may occur. Emerging analyses of joint mitigation/adaptation response options may need to account for these tipping points.
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气候变化适应成本的潜在临界点
摘要随着气候变暖的加剧,实现适应目标需要增加投资,但适应成本曲线尚未很好地量化。我们在这里提出,当超过关键的变暖水平时,适应成本可能会出现临界点(急剧增加),这对政策制定者和规划者具有重要影响。我们以选定的非洲农业和基于生态系统的生计为例探讨了这一命题,考虑到适应反应如何从应对阶段(低成本努力),通过临界点进入主动或有计划(“创造性”)适应阶段,这需要大幅增加适应投资,并通过进一步的转折点进入技术和资本密集型(“转型”)阶段,需要进一步大幅增加投资。适应成本的转折点可能是由于一系列适应限制被打破,但相关的急剧成本转变在文献中没有得到很好的认识。适应研究可以有效地侧重于确定这些临界点的可能时间以及它们可能发生在哪些部门。对联合缓解/适应应对备选方案的新分析可能需要考虑到这些临界点。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
8.90
自引率
4.70%
发文量
66
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