Calculations of the Spread of the COVID 19 epidemic in New York City based on the Analytical Model

Abstract

A detailed description of the model for calculating epidemic spread under conditions of lockdown and mass vaccination of the population is given (ASILV model). The proposed analytical model adequately describes the development of the epidemic in New York City. The estimates of the total number of infected persons and the seven-day incident rate made using the proposed model correlate well with the observed data in all the stages of epidemic growth. Model calculations of the spread of the epidemic under different vaccination rates allowed an assessment of the effect of vaccination on the growth of the epidemic. Analysis of seven-day incidence curves at different vaccination intensities led to the preliminary conclusion that at vaccination rates above a minimum value, the emergence of new strains did not lead to a growing epidemic.