Why is Bangladesh’s electricity generation heading towards a GHG emissions-intensive future?

IF 2.8 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Carbon Management Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI:10.1080/17583004.2022.2068454
Kumar Biswajit Debnath, M. Mourshed
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引用次数: 4

Abstract

Abstract Bangladesh—recently graduated to developing nation category from a least developed country with an emerging economy also is one of the severely affected countries by climate change—is heading towards a coal-intensive electricity generation mix contrary to global decarbonisation efforts. It is facing formidable challenges in achieving universal access to affordable, reliable, and sustainable electricity, decarbonising the energy mix by 2030 to achieve the objective of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7, despite a 285% increase of installed capacity between 2008–09 and 2020–21 and aiming at achieving 40 GW and 60 GW by 2030 and 2041 with planned expansions, respectively. This study reviewed Bangladesh’s electricity sector developments—demand, generation, transmission, and distribution (T&D)—to identify progress in policies, drivers, and challenges behind the Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions-intensive future direction. The rapid population and economic growth and shift towards industry-based economy drove the exponential growth in energy demand, eventually influencing the rapid generation capacity and T&D infrastructure development. However, Bangladesh has targeted transitioning from natural gas to coal dominating fuel mix due to the lower renewable potential, energy, and food security challenges, because of the anticipated substantial future electricity demand for becoming an Upper Middle and a High-income country by 2031 and 2041, respectively. We also recommended nuclear energy, (renewable) electricity import and floating solar plants to decarbonise the current trajectory.
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为什么孟加拉国的发电正在走向温室气体排放密集型的未来?
孟加拉国——最近从一个新兴经济体的最不发达国家升格为发展中国家,也是受气候变化影响最严重的国家之一——正在朝着与全球脱碳努力背道而驰的煤炭密集型发电组合发展。尽管2008-09年至2020-21年期间装机容量增长了285%,并计划在2030年和2041年分别实现40吉瓦和60吉瓦的扩张目标,但在实现普遍获得负担得起、可靠和可持续的电力、到2030年实现能源结构脱碳以实现可持续发展目标(SDG) 7方面,中国面临着巨大的挑战。本研究回顾了孟加拉国电力行业的发展——需求、发电、输电和配电(T&D)——以确定温室气体排放密集型未来发展方向背后的政策、驱动因素和挑战方面的进展。人口和经济的快速增长以及向工业经济的转型推动了能源需求的指数级增长,最终影响了快速的发电能力和输配电基础设施的发展。然而,由于可再生能源潜力较低,能源和粮食安全方面的挑战,孟加拉国的目标是从天然气向煤炭主导燃料结构过渡,因为预计到2031年和2041年,孟加拉国将分别成为中高收入和高收入国家,未来的电力需求将大幅增加。我们还建议使用核能、(可再生)电力进口和浮动太阳能发电厂来降低目前的碳排放轨迹。
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来源期刊
Carbon Management
Carbon Management ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-
CiteScore
5.80
自引率
3.20%
发文量
35
期刊介绍: Carbon Management is a scholarly peer-reviewed forum for insights from the diverse array of disciplines that enhance our understanding of carbon dioxide and other GHG interactions – from biology, ecology, chemistry and engineering to law, policy, economics and sociology. The core aim of Carbon Management is it to examine the options and mechanisms for mitigating the causes and impacts of climate change, which includes mechanisms for reducing emissions and enhancing the removal of GHGs from the atmosphere, as well as metrics used to measure performance of options and mechanisms resulting from international treaties, domestic policies, local regulations, environmental markets, technologies, industrial efforts and consumer choices. One key aim of the journal is to catalyse intellectual debate in an inclusive and scientific manner on the practical work of policy implementation related to the long-term effort of managing our global GHG emissions and impacts. Decisions made in the near future will have profound impacts on the global climate and biosphere. Carbon Management delivers research findings in an accessible format to inform decisions in the fields of research, education, management and environmental policy.
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