Examining Extreme Rainfall Forecast and Communication Processes in the South Central United States

Abstract

Extreme rainfall events are hazardous and costly. They have increased in parts of the United States and climate models project that trend to continue. Effective communication of potential threats and impacts associated with extreme rainfall events is one of the foci of a weather forecaster’s job and aligns with the National Weather Service’s (NWS) mission to protect life and property. This research investigated how NWS forecasters processed and communicated information about extreme rainfall events that occurred in the South Central U.S. between 2015 and 2019. The study also explored forecasters’ perceptions of the relationship between the events and climate change and if those perceptions impacted the forecasts, including how forecast information was communicated. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with NWS forecasters about how they internally processed and externally communicated model outliers and anomalous rainfall events. Thematic analysis of the interview data identified components of sensemaking and decision-making conceptual frameworks as well as principles of forecasting. These components were then combined to create an Extreme Event Forecast Communication Process Model to illustrate the findings. While forecast and communication processes are complex and vary between offices and forecasters, the communication process model presents a high-level conceptualization of how forecasters translate highly technical and disparate material into usable information for their audiences within the context of rare meteorological events.