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On the risk efficiency of a weather index insurance product for the Brazilian semi-arid region 巴西半干旱地区天气指数保险产品的风险效率研究
4区 地球科学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0079.1
Mateus P. Lavorato, Marcelo J. Braga
Abstract Weather index insurance (WII) has long been advertised as a viable alternative to crop yield insurance. WII products were firstly developed to assist climate-vulnerable farmers from developing countries where establishing a well-structured crop insurance market is expressively difficult due to the poor transport infrastructure and the prevalence of sparsely distributed small-scale farms. In Brazil, the semi-arid region stands out as the one that concentrates the ideal conditions for the implementation of a WII product since it houses thousands of climate-vulnerable farmers. With this in mind, we designed and priced a WII product for farmers from the semi-arid region of Brazil and posteriorly investigated its risk efficiency. To do so, we first investigated crop yield responses to aridity, enabling the selection of locations for which the WII product was posteriorly assessed. Second, we grouped selected locations into specific contracts according to geographical proximity and evaluated each of these contracts to attest the risk efficiency of the proposed WII product using the method of stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF), which identifies utility efficient alternatives for a range of risk attitudes. Our results show that the WII product may be effective in protecting farmers from adverse variations in production revenue, possibly being attractive for utility-maximizer farmers that are sufficiently risk-averse.
天气指数保险(WII)长期以来一直被宣传为农作物产量保险的可行替代方案。WII产品最初是为了帮助发展中国家易受气候影响的农民而开发的,在这些国家,由于交通基础设施落后和小规模农场分布稀疏,建立结构良好的作物保险市场非常困难。在巴西,半干旱地区因集中了实施WII产品的理想条件而脱颖而出,因为那里居住着数千名易受气候影响的农民。考虑到这一点,我们为巴西半干旱地区的农民设计并定价了WII产品,并对其风险效率进行了后续调查。为此,我们首先调查了作物产量对干旱的反应,从而选择了对WII产品进行事后评估的地点。其次,我们根据地理位置将选定的地点分组为特定的合同,并对每个合同进行评估,以证明所提议的WII产品的风险效率,使用相对于函数(SERF)的随机效率方法,该方法确定了一系列风险态度的效用效率替代方案。我们的研究结果表明,WII产品可能有效地保护农民免受生产收入不利变化的影响,可能对效用最大化的农民具有吸引力,这些农民足够厌恶风险。
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引用次数: 0
Climate Change Driving Salinity an Overview of Vulnerabilities, Adaptations, and Challenges for Indonesian Agriculture 气候变化驱动盐度:印尼农业脆弱性、适应性和挑战概述
4区 地球科学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0025.1
Renie Oelviani, Witono Adiyoga, I Gede Mahatma Yuda Bakti, Tota Suhendrata, Afrizal Malik, None Chanifah, None Samijan, Dewi Sahara, Himawan Arif Sutanto, Munir Eti Wulanjari, Budi Utomo, Arif Susila, Ratih Kurnia Jatuningtyas, Yennita Sihombing
Abstract Climate change has negatively affected agricultural productivity in Indonesia. This study aimed to conduct a bibliometric analysis of the literature on soil salinity caused by climate change, discuss the impact of soil salinity on Indonesian agriculture, examine various strategies for adaptation to salinity, and deliver some ideas for future research. An analysis of 39 identified Scopus articles related to farmers' vulnerability, adaptation, and practices was carried out. This study was performed in November 2022 and employed Bibliometrix R-package and VOSviewer software. Findings show that salinity has left Indonesia's agriculture vulnerable to reduced food production, especially for small-scale farmers losing crop yields and land. Various adaptation measures have been initiated, such as restoring soil fertility and using saline-resistant varieties. Irrigation facilities improvements have also been carried out to reduce the risks of soil salinity expansion. Farmers also try social action measures, such as selling assets, borrowing money for daily needs, and even changing jobs. However, farmers to survive and sustain their businesses, any any such measures need to produce satisfactory results. A review of the existing literature reveals a lack of soil salinity studies in Indonesia which simultaneously points to research gaps not only on the issue of the impact of salinity on income and the vulnerability of small farmers but also on the development of adaptation strategies to address salinity due to climate change.
气候变化对印度尼西亚的农业生产力产生了负面影响。本研究旨在对气候变化引起的土壤盐化的文献进行文献计量分析,讨论土壤盐化对印尼农业的影响,研究适应盐化的各种策略,并为未来的研究提供一些思路。对Scopus中39篇与农民脆弱性、适应性和实践相关的文章进行了分析。本研究于2022年11月进行,采用Bibliometrix R-package和VOSviewer软件。研究结果表明,盐碱化使印度尼西亚的农业容易受到粮食减产的影响,特别是小农的作物产量和土地损失。各种适应措施已经启动,如恢复土壤肥力和使用耐盐碱品种。灌溉设施也得到改善,以减少土壤盐碱度扩大的风险。农民还尝试社会行动措施,如出售资产,借钱满足日常需求,甚至换工作。然而,农民为了生存和维持他们的生意,任何这样的措施都需要产生令人满意的结果。对现有文献的回顾表明,印度尼西亚缺乏土壤盐度研究,这同时指出了研究空白,不仅在盐度对收入和小农脆弱性的影响问题上,而且在制定适应战略以应对气候变化导致的盐度问题上。
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引用次数: 0
Flash drought typologies and societal impacts: a worldwide review of occurrence, nomenclature, and experiences of local populations 突发性干旱的类型和社会影响:全球范围内对发生、命名和当地人口经验的回顾
4区 地球科学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-10-16 DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0015.1
David W. Walker, Noemi Vergopolan, Louise Cavalcante, Kelly Helm Smith, Sehouevi Mawuton David Agoungbome, André Almagro, Tushar Apurv, Nirmal Mani Dahal, David Hoffmann, Vishal Singh, Zhang Xiang
Abstract Flash droughts, characterised by rapid onset and intensification, are increasingly occurring as a consequence of climate change and rising temperatures. However, existing hydrometeorological definitions fail to encompass the full range of flash droughts, many of which have distinct local physical attributes. Consequently, these events often go undetected or unforecast in generic global flash drought assessments and are underrepresented in research. To address this gap, we conducted a comprehensive survey to gather information on local nomenclature, characteristics, and impacts of flash droughts worldwide. The survey revealed the widespread occurrence of these phenomena, highlighting their under-researched nature. By analysing case studies, through literature review often in local languages to unearth elusive studies, we identified five different types of flash droughts based on their specific characteristics. Our study aims to increase awareness about the complexity and diverse impacts of flash droughts, emphasising the importance of considering regional contexts and the vulnerability of affected populations. The reported impacts underscore the need for better integration of all flash drought types in drought research, monitoring, and management. Monitoring a combination of indicators is crucial for timely detection and response to this emerging and escalating threat.
由于气候变化和气温上升,突发性干旱以快速发生和加剧为特征,越来越多地发生。然而,现有的水文气象定义未能涵盖突发性干旱的全部范围,其中许多具有独特的当地物理属性。因此,在一般的全球突发性干旱评估中,这些事件往往未被发现或无法预测,在研究中也代表性不足。为了弥补这一差距,我们进行了一项全面的调查,以收集有关全球突发性干旱的当地术语、特征和影响的信息。这项调查揭示了这些现象的普遍存在,突出了它们的研究不足的性质。通过对案例研究的分析,通过对当地语言的文献回顾来挖掘难以捉摸的研究,我们根据其具体特征确定了五种不同类型的突发性干旱。我们的研究旨在提高人们对突发性干旱的复杂性和多样性影响的认识,强调考虑区域背景和受影响人群脆弱性的重要性。报告的影响强调需要在干旱研究、监测和管理中更好地整合所有突发性干旱类型。监测综合指标对于及时发现和应对这一新出现和不断升级的威胁至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Transformative ecological and human impacts from climate change and diminished sea ice in the northern Bering Sea 气候变化和白令海北部海冰减少对生态和人类的影响
4区 地球科学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-10-11 DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0029.1
James E. Overland, Elizabeth Siddon, Gay Sheffield, Thomas J. Ballinger, Cody Szuwalski
Abstract Our goal is to tie climate scale mete o rology to regional physics and ecosystem changes, and on to human impacts. There was record minimum sea-ice cover during winter 2018 and 2019 in the Bering Sea, with continuing multi-year impacts on the marine ecosystem and human activities. The back-to-back sea-ice minimums during 2018 and 2019 were certainly unexpected, given the normal large year-to-year variability of storms for the northern Bering Sea. Ecological shifts indicated reorganization of the northern marine food web that included loss of sea-ice algae and young crabs, and predatory cod and pollock moving north impacting lower trophic levels. Possible direct impacts from sea-ice loss and warmer temperatures included increased seabird and ice-associated seal emaciation and mortality, and increased harmful algal blooms. These changes affected regional food security, human/wildlife health, cultural activities, and marine wildlife conservation. Global warming initiated these events through a weakened atmospheric Arctic Front that promotes a self-reinforcing cycle of sea-ice loss, warmer temperatures, southerly winds and a wavy jet stream. Resulting impacts to livelihoods in the northern Bering Sea were commercial and non-commercial subsistence acquisition of essential marine resources for sale and direct consumption. Interannual variability is still important; during 2022 and 2023 the Aleutian Low pressure system was regionally dominant and sea ice was near the climatological average. Projections for the next decades are for an increasing frequency of low sea-ice years and a continuing ecosystem transition impacting essential marine wildlife resources and residents of the coastal northern Bering Sea.
我们的目标是将气候尺度测量与区域物理和生态系统变化以及人类影响联系起来。在2018年和2019年冬季,白令海的海冰覆盖面积达到了创纪录的最低水平,对海洋生态系统和人类活动的影响持续多年。考虑到白令海北部风暴的年增率通常很大,2018年和2019年连续出现的海冰最小值当然是出乎意料的。生态变化表明北部海洋食物网的重组,包括海冰藻类和幼蟹的减少,以及掠食性鳕鱼和鳕鱼向北移动,影响了较低的营养水平。海冰减少和气温升高可能造成的直接影响包括海鸟和与冰有关的海豹的消瘦和死亡率增加,以及有害藻华的增加。这些变化影响到区域粮食安全、人类/野生动物健康、文化活动和海洋野生动物保护。全球变暖通过减弱的大气北极锋引发了这些事件,北极锋促进了海冰减少、气温升高、南风和波浪状喷射流的自我强化循环。由此对白令海北部居民生计造成的影响是商业和非商业获取基本海洋资源以供出售和直接消费。年际变化仍然很重要;2022年和2023年,阿留申低压系统占区域主导地位,海冰接近气候平均值。对未来几十年的预测是,海冰减少的年份将越来越频繁,生态系统将继续转型,影响白令海北部沿海的重要海洋野生动物资源和居民。
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引用次数: 0
Future Heavy rainfall and flood risks for Native America under climate and demographic changes: A case study in Oklahoma 气候和人口变化下美洲原住民的未来暴雨和洪水风险:以俄克拉荷马州为例
4区 地球科学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-10-09 DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0005.1
Zhi Li, Theresa Tsoodle, Mengye Chen, Shang Gao, Jiaqi Zhang, Yixin Wen, Tiantian Yang, Farina King, Yang Hong
Abstract Climate change has posed inequitable risks to different communities. Among communities of color in the US, Native Americans stand out because (1) they desire resources to sustain resilient nations; and (2) they have developed nature-based solutions through experiences with local climate-related challenges, which can provide deep insight for the whole society. Projection of climate risks for Native Americans is essential to assess future risks and support their climate-ready nations; yet, there has been lack of useable information. In this study, we projected three climate hazards – heavy rainfall, two-year floods, flash floods – for tribal nations in Oklahoma. To break down into tribal jurisdictions, we utilize a coupled regional climate model at 4 km and flash flood forecast model at 1 km. A hazard-exposure-vulnerability risk framework is applied to integrate both climate and demographic changes in a high-emissions scenario. It is found that: (1) indigenous people are the most vulnerable community in Oklahoma; (2) heavy rainfall and two-year floods have marked increases in risks at 501.1% and 632.6%, respectively, while flash floods have a moderate increase (296.4%); (3) Native Americans bear 68.0%, 64.3%, and 64.0% higher risks in heavy rainfall, two-year flooding, and flash flooding than general population in Oklahoma; (3) comparing climate and demographic changes, population growth leads to greater climate hazard risks than climate change; and (4) Emerging Tribal Nations are projected to have 10 times more population, resulting in great exposures to climate extremes. This study can raise awareness of the impact of climate changes, and draw attention to address climate injustice issues for minoritized communities.
气候变化给不同社区带来了不公平的风险。在美国的有色人种群体中,印第安人脱颖而出,因为(1)他们需要资源来维持有弹性的国家;(2)他们通过应对当地气候相关挑战的经验,开发了基于自然的解决方案,可以为整个社会提供深刻的见解。预测美洲原住民的气候风险对于评估未来的风险和支持他们的气候准备就绪的国家至关重要;然而,一直缺乏可用的信息。在这项研究中,我们预测了俄克拉荷马州部落国家的三种气候灾害——强降雨、两年一次的洪水和山洪暴发。为了分解到部落管辖区,我们使用了一个耦合的4公里区域气候模型和1公里的山洪预报模型。应用危害暴露-脆弱性风险框架,将高排放情景下的气候和人口变化结合起来。研究发现:(1)俄克拉何马州土著居民是最脆弱的群体;(2)强降雨和两年洪涝灾害危险性分别显著增加501.1%和632.6%,山洪灾害危险性适度增加296.4%;(3)俄克拉何马州印第安人在强降雨、两年洪水和山洪暴发中的风险分别比普通人群高68.0%、64.3%和64.0%;(3)对比气候和人口变化,人口增长导致的气候灾害风险大于气候变化;(4)新兴部落国家的人口预计将增加10倍以上,因此极易受到极端气候的影响。这项研究可以提高人们对气候变化影响的认识,并引起人们对少数群体气候不公正问题的关注。
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引用次数: 0
The Extreme Weather and Emergency Management Survey 极端天气和应急管理调查
4区 地球科学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-10-04 DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0085.1
Anna Wanless, Sam Stormer, Joseph T. Ripberger, Makenzie J. Krocak, Andrew Fox, David Hogg, Hank Jenkins-Smith, Carol Silva, Scott E. Robinson, Warren S. Eller
Abstract National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters have many roles and responsibilities, including communication with core partners throughout the forecast and warning process to ensure that the information they are providing is relevant, understandable, and actionable. While the NWS communicates to many groups, members of the emergency management community are among the most critical partners. However, little is known about the diverse population of emergency managers (EMs) and how they receive, process, and use forecast information. The Extreme Weather and Emergency Management Survey (WxEM) aims to fill this knowledge gap by (1) building a nationwide panel of EMs and (2) fielding routine surveys that include questions of relevance to NWS operations. The panel was built by creating a database with contact information from more than 4,000 EMs across the country. An enrollment survey was sent to the list, and over 700 EMs agreed to participate in the project. Following enrollment, WxEM panelists receive surveys that address how EMs use NWS forecast information three to four times a year. These surveys cover a variety of subjects, with the goal of working with other researchers to develop surveys that address their research needs. By collaborating with other research groups to design short, focused surveys, the WxEM project will reduce the research burden on EMs and, at the same time, increase the quality and comparability of research data in the weather enterprise. The results will be shared with the NWS and the research community, and all data gathered from these surveys will be publicly available.
国家气象局(NWS)预报员有许多角色和责任,包括在整个预报和预警过程中与核心合作伙伴进行沟通,以确保他们提供的信息是相关的、可理解的和可操作的。虽然国家气象局与许多团体进行沟通,但应急管理界的成员是最重要的合作伙伴之一。然而,人们对应急管理人员(EMs)的多样性以及他们如何接收、处理和使用预测信息知之甚少。极端天气和应急管理调查(WxEM)旨在通过以下方式填补这一知识空白:(1)建立一个全国性的应急管理小组;(2)开展例行调查,包括与NWS业务相关的问题。该小组是通过创建一个数据库建立的,其中包含来自全国4000多家新兴市场的联系信息。一份登记调查被发送到名单中,超过700个新兴市场同意参与该项目。在登记之后,WxEM小组成员每年会收到三到四次关于新兴市场如何使用NWS预测信息的调查。这些调查涵盖了各种各样的主题,目的是与其他研究人员合作开发调查,以满足他们的研究需求。通过与其他研究小组合作设计简短、重点突出的调查,WxEM项目将减轻em的研究负担,同时提高气象企业研究数据的质量和可比性。调查结果将与美国国家气象局和研究界共享,从这些调查中收集的所有数据都将公开。
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引用次数: 0
Contextualizing disaster phases using social media data: Hurricane risk visualizations during the forecast and warning phase of Hurricane Irma 使用社交媒体数据将灾害阶段置于背景中:飓风厄玛预报和预警阶段的飓风风险可视化
4区 地球科学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0046.1
Robert Prestley, Rebecca E. Morss
Abstract Common disaster-phase models provide a useful heuristic for understanding how disasters evolve, but they do not adequately characterize the transitions between phases, such as the forecast and warning phase of predictable disasters. In this study, we use tweets posted by professional sources of meteorological information in Florida during Hurricane Irma (2017) to understand how visual risk communication evolves during this transition. We identify four subphases of the forecast and warning phase: the hypothetical threat, actualized threat, looming threat, and impact subphases. Each subphase is denoted by changes in the kinds of visual risk information disseminated by professional sources and retransmitted by the public, which are often driven by new information provided by the U.S. National Weather Service. In addition, we use regression analysis to understand the impact of tweet timing, content, risk visualization and other factors on tweet retransmission across Irma’s forecast and warning phase. We find that cone, satellite, and spaghetti-plot image types are retweeted more, while watch/warning imagery is retweeted less. In addition, manually generated tweets are retweeted more than automated tweets. These results highlight several information needs to incorporate into the current NWS hurricane forecast visualization suite, such as uncertainty and hazard-specific information at longer lead times, and the importance of investigating the effectiveness of different social media posting strategies. Our results also demonstrate the roles and responsibilities that professional sources engage in during these subphases, which builds understanding of disasters by contextualizing the subphases along the transition from long-term preparedness to postevent response and recovery. Significance Statement Visual information is an important tool for communicating about evolving tropical cyclone threats. In this study, we investigate the kinds of visualizations posted by professional weather communicators on Twitter during Hurricane Irma (2017) to understand how visual information shifts over time and whether different visuals are more retweeted. We find that visual information shifts substantially in the days before Irma’s impacts, and these shifts are often driven by changes in Irma’s strength or forecast track. Our results show that cone, satellite, and spaghetti-plot visualizations are retweeted more frequently, while watch/warning imagery is retweeted less. These results help us to understand how visual information evolves during predictable disasters, and they suggest ways that visual communication can be improved.
常见的灾害阶段模型为理解灾害如何演变提供了有用的启发,但它们不能充分表征阶段之间的过渡,例如可预测灾害的预测和预警阶段。在本研究中,我们使用佛罗里达州专业气象信息来源在飓风伊尔玛(2017年)期间发布的推文,以了解视觉风险沟通在这一过渡期间的演变。我们确定了预测和预警阶段的四个子阶段:假设威胁、实际威胁、迫在眉睫的威胁和影响子阶段。每个子阶段由专业来源传播并由公众重新传播的视觉风险信息种类的变化来表示,这些变化通常是由美国国家气象局提供的新信息驱动的。此外,我们使用回归分析来了解Irma预测和预警阶段的推文时间、内容、风险可视化等因素对推文转发的影响。我们发现锥形、卫星和意大利面图图像类型的转发量更多,而观察/警告图像的转发量较少。此外,人工生成的推文比自动生成的推文更容易被转发。这些结果强调了当前NWS飓风预测可视化套件需要纳入的几个信息,例如不确定性和更长的前置时间的特定危害信息,以及调查不同社交媒体发布策略有效性的重要性。我们的研究结果还展示了专业人员在这些子阶段中所扮演的角色和责任,通过将从长期准备过渡到事后响应和恢复的子阶段置于背景中,建立了对灾害的理解。视觉信息是沟通热带气旋威胁演变的重要工具。在这项研究中,我们调查了在飓风伊尔玛(2017年)期间,专业天气传播者在推特上发布的各种可视化图像,以了解视觉信息如何随着时间的推移而变化,以及不同的视觉图像是否会被更多地转发。我们发现,在“厄玛”影响前几天,视觉信息发生了重大变化,这些变化通常是由“厄玛”强度或预测路径的变化所驱动的。我们的研究结果表明,圆锥图、卫星图和意大利面图的可视化图像被转发的频率更高,而观察/警告图像的转发频率较低。这些结果帮助我们了解在可预测的灾难中视觉信息是如何演变的,并提出了改进视觉交流的方法。
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引用次数: 0
Integrating Place and Sense of Place into Geovisualizations of Hurricane Storm Surge Risk 将地点和地点感整合到飓风风暴潮风险的地理可视化中
4区 地球科学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0044.1
O.V. Wilhelmi, B.C. Chamberlain, R.E. Morss, J.L. Demuth, H.D. Walpole, J. Boehnert, J.M. Gambill, H. Lazrus, J.G. Dobson
Abstract Geovisualizations play a central role in communicating hurricane storm surge risks to the public by connecting information about the hazard to a place. Meanwhile, people connect to places through meaning, functions, and emotional bond, known as a sense of place. The mixed-method approach presented in this paper focuses on the intersection of sense of place, geovisualization, and risk communication. We explored place meaning, scale of place, and place attachment in the coastal communities in Georgia and South Carolina. We conducted cognitive mapping focus groups and developed a series of geovisualizations of storm surge risk with varying representations of place. We then investigated people’s ability to connect visual storm surge information to a place and understand their risk by testing these geovisualizations in a large population survey ( n = 1442). We found that a 2D regional-scale map displayed together with a 3D abstract representation of a neighborhood was the most helpful in enabling people to relate to a place, quickly make sense of the information, and understand the risk. Our results showed that while the geovisualizations of storm surge risk can be effective generally, they were less effective in several important and vulnerable groups. We found substantial impacts of race, income, map-reading ability, place attachment, and scale of place on how people connected the storm surge risk shown in the visual to a place. These findings have implications for future research and for considering the way weather forecasters and emergency managers communicate storm surge information with diverse audiences using geovisualizations. Significance Statement Weather forecasters and emergency managers often use geovisualizations to communicate hurricane storm surge risks and threats to the public. Despite the important role that geovisualizations play, few studies have empirically investigated their effectiveness in hazardous weather risk communication. With the overarching goal of understanding how geovisualizations enable coastal residents to understand and respond to risk, we use an interdisciplinary approach to create new knowledge about the effectiveness of geovisualizations in storm surge risk communication. Our results show substantial impacts of sociodemographic factors across many of the measures that enable people to connect to a place through visualizations. These findings have implications for communicating geospatially varying risk to diverse audiences.
地理可视化通过将有关危险的信息与一个地方联系起来,在向公众传达飓风风暴潮风险方面发挥着核心作用。与此同时,人们通过意义、功能和情感纽带与地方联系在一起,这被称为地方感。本文提出的混合方法侧重于地点感、地理可视化和风险沟通的交叉。我们探索了乔治亚州和南卡罗来纳州沿海社区的地方意义、地方规模和地方依恋。我们开展了认知地图焦点小组,并开发了一系列风暴潮风险的地理可视化,这些可视化具有不同的地点表示。然后,我们调查了人们将视觉风暴潮信息与一个地方联系起来的能力,并通过在大规模人口调查中测试这些地理可视化来了解他们的风险(n = 1442)。我们发现,2D区域比例图与3D社区抽象图一起显示,对于使人们与一个地方建立联系、快速理解信息并了解风险最有帮助。我们的研究结果表明,虽然风暴潮风险的地理可视化在一般情况下是有效的,但在一些重要和脆弱的群体中效果较差。我们发现种族、收入、地图阅读能力、地点依恋和地点规模对人们如何将视觉中显示的风暴潮风险与地点联系起来有实质性影响。这些发现对未来的研究和考虑天气预报员和应急管理人员使用地理可视化与不同受众交流风暴潮信息的方式具有启示意义。气象预报员和应急管理人员经常使用地理可视化向公众传达飓风风暴潮的风险和威胁。尽管地理可视化发挥着重要作用,但很少有研究对其在危险天气风险沟通中的有效性进行实证调查。以了解地理可视化如何使沿海居民了解和应对风险为首要目标,我们使用跨学科的方法来创建关于地理可视化在风暴潮风险沟通中的有效性的新知识。我们的研究结果显示,社会人口因素在许多方面都有重大影响,这些因素使人们能够通过可视化与一个地方建立联系。这些发现对向不同的受众传达地理空间上不同的风险具有启示意义。
{"title":"Integrating Place and Sense of Place into Geovisualizations of Hurricane Storm Surge Risk","authors":"O.V. Wilhelmi, B.C. Chamberlain, R.E. Morss, J.L. Demuth, H.D. Walpole, J. Boehnert, J.M. Gambill, H. Lazrus, J.G. Dobson","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-23-0044.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-23-0044.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Geovisualizations play a central role in communicating hurricane storm surge risks to the public by connecting information about the hazard to a place. Meanwhile, people connect to places through meaning, functions, and emotional bond, known as a sense of place. The mixed-method approach presented in this paper focuses on the intersection of sense of place, geovisualization, and risk communication. We explored place meaning, scale of place, and place attachment in the coastal communities in Georgia and South Carolina. We conducted cognitive mapping focus groups and developed a series of geovisualizations of storm surge risk with varying representations of place. We then investigated people’s ability to connect visual storm surge information to a place and understand their risk by testing these geovisualizations in a large population survey ( n = 1442). We found that a 2D regional-scale map displayed together with a 3D abstract representation of a neighborhood was the most helpful in enabling people to relate to a place, quickly make sense of the information, and understand the risk. Our results showed that while the geovisualizations of storm surge risk can be effective generally, they were less effective in several important and vulnerable groups. We found substantial impacts of race, income, map-reading ability, place attachment, and scale of place on how people connected the storm surge risk shown in the visual to a place. These findings have implications for future research and for considering the way weather forecasters and emergency managers communicate storm surge information with diverse audiences using geovisualizations. Significance Statement Weather forecasters and emergency managers often use geovisualizations to communicate hurricane storm surge risks and threats to the public. Despite the important role that geovisualizations play, few studies have empirically investigated their effectiveness in hazardous weather risk communication. With the overarching goal of understanding how geovisualizations enable coastal residents to understand and respond to risk, we use an interdisciplinary approach to create new knowledge about the effectiveness of geovisualizations in storm surge risk communication. Our results show substantial impacts of sociodemographic factors across many of the measures that enable people to connect to a place through visualizations. These findings have implications for communicating geospatially varying risk to diverse audiences.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":"131 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135662095","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Extreme Arctic Weather and Community Impacts in Nunavut: A Case Study of One Winter’s Storms and Lessons for Local Climate Change Preparedness 北极极端天气和对努纳武特地区社区的影响:一个冬季风暴的案例研究和对当地气候变化防范的教训
4区 地球科学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0006.1
Shari Fox, Alex Crawford, Michelle McCrystall, Julienne Stroeve, Jennifer Lukovich, Nicole Loeb, Jerry Natanine, Mark Serreze
Abstract Arctic communities are experienced with severe weather, but impacts can still be serious, particularly when the intensity or persistence of hazardous conditions is extreme. Such was the case for the community of Clyde River (Kangiqtugaapik), Nunavut, Canada, which experienced 33 blizzard days during winter 2021/22—likely the most at Clyde River since at least 1978/79. Blizzard conditions resulted from unusually frequent high winds rather than excessive snowfall. The most severe stretch included eight blizzard days over an 11-day period, with top wind gusts of 98 km h −1 . Winds caused severe drifting, covering homes and blocking streets. Broken heavy equipment, including snow-clearing machines, compounded the impacts, leaving homes without essential services like water delivery and sewage pump-out for days. Residents reported the storms and resulting impacts as some of the worst in memory. The drifting and volume of snow, combined with the lack of available resources to manage it, obliged the community to declare a state of emergency. Projections of increased Arctic precipitation and extreme weather events points to the need for communities to have proper resources and supports, including preparedness and adaptation and mitigation strategies, so they can be better equipped to handle storm and blizzard impacts such as those experienced at Clyde River in the winter of 2021/22. Additional steps that can be implemented to better support and prepare communities include investing in preparedness planning, expanded and enhanced weather information and services, community land-based programming to transfer Inuit knowledge and skills, assessing the usefulness of current forecasts, and new approaches to community planning. Significance Statement In this study, we consider the winter of 2021/22, during which the community of Clyde River (Kangiqtugaapik), Nunavut experienced 33 days with blizzard conditions—more than any other year since at least 1978/79. Blizzards are characterized by strong winds and blowing snow. Low visibility impedes travel, and drifting snow blocks roads and can bury equipment and buildings. In this case, broken snow-clearing equipment and other infrastructure challenges also hampered the community’s ability to respond, and residents went days without essential services. Several studies suggest that extreme winds will become more common in the Baffin Bay region in the future. This study demonstrates the need for proper resourcing of communities for preparedness, response, and adaptation strategies, especially with the possibility of extreme winter weather becoming more common.
北极社区经历了恶劣天气,但影响仍然可能是严重的,特别是当危险条件的强度或持续时间是极端的。这就是加拿大努纳维特的克莱德河(Kangiqtugaapik)社区的情况,该社区在2021/22冬季经历了33天的暴风雪,可能是克莱德河至少自1978/79年以来最多的一次。暴雪是由异常频繁的大风造成的,而不是过多的降雪。最严重的一段时间包括11天的8天暴雪,最高风速为98公里每小时。大风造成严重的漂流,房屋被覆盖,街道被堵塞。包括除雪机在内的重型设备的损坏加剧了影响,导致一些家庭连续数天没有供水和污水泵等基本服务。居民们报告说,这场风暴及其造成的影响是记忆中最严重的。积雪的漂移和数量,加上缺乏可用的管理资源,迫使社区宣布进入紧急状态。对北极降水和极端天气事件增加的预测表明,社区需要有适当的资源和支持,包括准备、适应和缓解战略,以便他们能够更好地应对风暴和暴风雪的影响,如2021/22年冬天克莱德河所经历的影响。为更好地支持和帮助社区做好准备,还可以采取其他措施,包括投资于准备规划、扩大和加强天气信息和服务、社区陆上规划以转移因纽特人的知识和技能、评估当前预报的有用性,以及社区规划的新方法。在本研究中,我们考虑了2021/22年的冬天,在此期间,Nunavut的克莱德河(Kangiqtugaapik)社区经历了33天的暴风雪条件,比至少自1978/79年以来的任何其他年份都多。暴风雪的特点是强风和吹雪。低能见度阻碍了旅行,飘雪阻塞了道路,掩埋了设备和建筑物。在这种情况下,破碎的除雪设备和其他基础设施的挑战也阻碍了社区的反应能力,居民们几天没有基本的服务。几项研究表明,未来极端风在巴芬湾地区将变得更加常见。这项研究表明,需要为社区提供适当的资源,用于准备、响应和适应战略,特别是在极端冬季天气可能变得越来越普遍的情况下。
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引用次数: 0
Tweeting the Heat: An Analysis of the National Weather Service's Approach to Extreme Heat Communication on Twitter 推特热:分析国家气象局在推特上的极端高温传播方法
4区 地球科学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0033.1
Michele K. Olson, Jeannette Sutton, Nicholas Waugh
Abstract Heat communication interventions are an essential way that public safety organizations can reduce extreme heat consequences for at-risk groups. Although the aim of these interventions is typically behavior change, these organizations commonly assume that providing information about heat risks, impacts, vulnerable populations, and protective actions will lead individuals to protect themselves. However, behavior change is a complex process whereby messages must be crafted in ways that increase their persuasive effects. To examine the extent to which key assumptions about behavior change are present in public safety organizations’ heat communication interventions, we examine 250 heat-related tweets sent by seven National Weather Service (NWS) weather forecast offices (WFOs) in 2021. We find that these NWS WFOs use technical language or “jargon” to communicate about heat risks and impacts. In addition, we find that information about vulnerable populations and protective actions is not presented in a way that conforms to theory on behavior change. Based on these results, we offer recommendations to increase the persuasiveness of NWS WFO communication interventions that encourage the public to protect themselves during extreme heat events. Significance Statement Heat is the leading cause of death among all weather-related hazards. How heat is communicated to the public can help mitigate heat-related morbidity and mortality. However, heat communication interventions are often developed with several embedded assumptions about behavior change that negatively impact their effectiveness. By examining how a key public safety organization communicates about heat on social media, and the extent to which these assumptions are present, we offer recommendations to increase the persuasiveness of NWS heat communication on social media.
热传播干预是公共安全组织减少高危人群极端高温后果的重要途径。虽然这些干预措施的目的通常是改变行为,但这些组织通常认为,提供有关高温风险、影响、脆弱人群和保护措施的信息将引导个人保护自己。然而,行为改变是一个复杂的过程,在这个过程中,信息必须以增加其说服力的方式精心制作。为了检查公共安全组织的热传播干预措施中存在的关于行为变化的关键假设的程度,我们检查了2021年七个国家气象局(NWS)天气预报办公室(wfo)发送的250条与热相关的推文。我们发现这些NWS wfo使用技术语言或“行话”来传达热风险和影响。此外,我们发现关于弱势群体和保护行动的信息并没有以符合行为改变理论的方式呈现。基于这些结果,我们提出了建议,以提高NWS WFO传播干预措施的说服力,鼓励公众在极端高温事件中保护自己。在所有与天气有关的危害中,高温是导致死亡的主要原因。如何将热量传达给公众可以帮助减少与热有关的发病率和死亡率。然而,热传导干预通常是与一些对行为改变产生负面影响的嵌入假设一起开发的。通过研究一个重要的公共安全组织如何在社交媒体上传播热量,以及这些假设存在的程度,我们提出了增加NWS在社交媒体上传播热量的说服力的建议。
{"title":"Tweeting the Heat: An Analysis of the National Weather Service's Approach to Extreme Heat Communication on Twitter","authors":"Michele K. Olson, Jeannette Sutton, Nicholas Waugh","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-23-0033.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-23-0033.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Heat communication interventions are an essential way that public safety organizations can reduce extreme heat consequences for at-risk groups. Although the aim of these interventions is typically behavior change, these organizations commonly assume that providing information about heat risks, impacts, vulnerable populations, and protective actions will lead individuals to protect themselves. However, behavior change is a complex process whereby messages must be crafted in ways that increase their persuasive effects. To examine the extent to which key assumptions about behavior change are present in public safety organizations’ heat communication interventions, we examine 250 heat-related tweets sent by seven National Weather Service (NWS) weather forecast offices (WFOs) in 2021. We find that these NWS WFOs use technical language or “jargon” to communicate about heat risks and impacts. In addition, we find that information about vulnerable populations and protective actions is not presented in a way that conforms to theory on behavior change. Based on these results, we offer recommendations to increase the persuasiveness of NWS WFO communication interventions that encourage the public to protect themselves during extreme heat events. Significance Statement Heat is the leading cause of death among all weather-related hazards. How heat is communicated to the public can help mitigate heat-related morbidity and mortality. However, heat communication interventions are often developed with several embedded assumptions about behavior change that negatively impact their effectiveness. By examining how a key public safety organization communicates about heat on social media, and the extent to which these assumptions are present, we offer recommendations to increase the persuasiveness of NWS heat communication on social media.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":"65 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135323298","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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Weather Climate and Society
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