Modelling the association between weather and short-term demand for children’s intensive care transport services during winter in the South East of England

IF 1.5 Q3 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Operations Research for Health Care Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI:10.1016/j.orhc.2021.100327
Samuel Livingstone , Christina Pagel , Zejing Shao , Elise Randle , Padmanabhan Ramnarayan
{"title":"Modelling the association between weather and short-term demand for children’s intensive care transport services during winter in the South East of England","authors":"Samuel Livingstone ,&nbsp;Christina Pagel ,&nbsp;Zejing Shao ,&nbsp;Elise Randle ,&nbsp;Padmanabhan Ramnarayan","doi":"10.1016/j.orhc.2021.100327","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Data from a paediatric intensive care transport service based in the South East of England between 2006 and 2018 are studied using generalised additive models to investigate the effects of extreme weather on demand in winter. Noticeable increases in daily demand for the service are uncovered after periods of extreme weather, and can be partitioned into two characteristically different phenomena, most pronounced at 2 days and 7 days after a period of particularly low temperature combined with either high or low humidity. The effect is more visible when virus prevalence is accounted for, showing that demand can increase by as much as 30% 7 days after a period of low temperature and low humidity, and 20% 2 days after a period of low temperature and high humidity.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46320,"journal":{"name":"Operations Research for Health Care","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article 100327"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5000,"publicationDate":"2021-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Operations Research for Health Care","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211692321000436","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

Data from a paediatric intensive care transport service based in the South East of England between 2006 and 2018 are studied using generalised additive models to investigate the effects of extreme weather on demand in winter. Noticeable increases in daily demand for the service are uncovered after periods of extreme weather, and can be partitioned into two characteristically different phenomena, most pronounced at 2 days and 7 days after a period of particularly low temperature combined with either high or low humidity. The effect is more visible when virus prevalence is accounted for, showing that demand can increase by as much as 30% 7 days after a period of low temperature and low humidity, and 20% 2 days after a period of low temperature and high humidity.

查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
模拟天气与英格兰东南部冬季儿童重症监护运输服务短期需求之间的关系
研究人员使用广义加法模型研究了2006年至2018年期间英格兰东南部儿科重症监护运输服务的数据,以调查极端天气对冬季需求的影响。在极端天气过后,每日的服务需求会明显增加,并可分为两种不同的现象,最明显的是在气温特别低且湿度过高或过低的一段时间后的第2天和第7天。当考虑到病毒流行时,效果更为明显,表明在一段低温低湿期后7天需求可增加30%,在一段低温高湿期后2天需求可增加20%。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 去求助
来源期刊
Operations Research for Health Care
Operations Research for Health Care HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES-
CiteScore
3.90
自引率
0.00%
发文量
9
审稿时长
69 days
期刊最新文献
Editorial Board Preference-based allocation of patients to nursing homes Balancing continuity of care and home care schedule costs using blueprint routes Outpatient appointment systems: A new heuristic with patient classification A modeling framework for evaluating proactive and reactive nurse rostering strategies — A case study from a Neonatal Intensive Care Unit
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1