Modelling the association between weather and short-term demand for children’s intensive care transport services during winter in the South East of England

IF 1.5 Q3 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Operations Research for Health Care Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI:10.1016/j.orhc.2021.100327
Samuel Livingstone , Christina Pagel , Zejing Shao , Elise Randle , Padmanabhan Ramnarayan
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Abstract

Data from a paediatric intensive care transport service based in the South East of England between 2006 and 2018 are studied using generalised additive models to investigate the effects of extreme weather on demand in winter. Noticeable increases in daily demand for the service are uncovered after periods of extreme weather, and can be partitioned into two characteristically different phenomena, most pronounced at 2 days and 7 days after a period of particularly low temperature combined with either high or low humidity. The effect is more visible when virus prevalence is accounted for, showing that demand can increase by as much as 30% 7 days after a period of low temperature and low humidity, and 20% 2 days after a period of low temperature and high humidity.

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模拟天气与英格兰东南部冬季儿童重症监护运输服务短期需求之间的关系
研究人员使用广义加法模型研究了2006年至2018年期间英格兰东南部儿科重症监护运输服务的数据,以调查极端天气对冬季需求的影响。在极端天气过后,每日的服务需求会明显增加,并可分为两种不同的现象,最明显的是在气温特别低且湿度过高或过低的一段时间后的第2天和第7天。当考虑到病毒流行时,效果更为明显,表明在一段低温低湿期后7天需求可增加30%,在一段低温高湿期后2天需求可增加20%。
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来源期刊
Operations Research for Health Care
Operations Research for Health Care HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES-
CiteScore
3.90
自引率
0.00%
发文量
9
审稿时长
69 days
期刊最新文献
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