Age-structured delayed SIPCV epidemic model of HPV and cervical cancer cells dynamics I. Numerical method

Abstract

The numerical method for simulation dynamics of nonlinear epidemic model of age-structured sub-populations of susceptible, infectious, precancerous and cancer cells and unstructured population of human papilloma virus (HPV) is developed (SIPCV model). Cell population dynamics is described by the initial-boundary value problem for the delayed semi-linear hyperbolic equations with age- and time-dependent coefficients and HPV dynamics is described by the initial problem for nonlinear delayed ODE. The model considers two time-delay parameters: the time between viral entry into a target susceptible cell and the production of new virus particles, and duration of the first stage of delayed immune response to HPV population growing. Using the method of characteristics and method of steps we obtain the exact solution of the SIPCV epidemic model in the form of explicit recurrent formulae. The numerical method designed for this solution and used the trapezoidal rule for integrals in recurrent formulae has a second order of accuracy. Numerical experiments with vanished mesh spacing illustrate the second order of accuracy of numerical solution with respect to the benchmark solution and show the dynamical regimes of cell-HPV population with the different phase portraits.