Medium- and long-term prediction of length-of-day changes with the combined singular spectrum analysis and neural networks

Abstract

Real-time estimates of the Earth orientation parameters (EOP) are currently unavailable for users owing to the delay caused by complex data processing and heavy computation procedures. Accurate short-term predictions of the EOP are therefore essential for several real-time applications such as navigation and tracking of interplanetary spacecrafts and precise orbit determination of Earth satellites, whilst medium- and long-term predictions are required for Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) autonomous satellite navigation, climate forecasting as well as for astrogeodynamic studies. Universal time (UT1 – UTC) or its first time derivative, length of day (ΔLOD), representing the changes of the Earth’s rotation rate, are the most challenging to predict among the EOP. Various methods and techniques have been used to improve ΔLOD predictions since the present prediction accuracy is yet unsatisfactory even up a few days into the future. This study employs a popular time-series analysis method, called singular spectrum analysis (SSA), in combination with the neural network (NN) technique for medium- and long-term prediction of ΔLOD up to 2 years in the future. The SSA is first applied to extracting the predominant periodic components including annual and semiannual oscillations and irregular short-period signals in ΔLOD data. These extracted predominant periodic components are then extrapolated by the proposed SSA-based data filling strategy. Next, the residuals (the difference between these predominant components and the data themselves) are modeled and predicted by the NN technique. The predicted ΔLOD value is sum of the extrapolation of the predominant periodic components and the prediction of the residuals. The results show that the accuracy of the 180-day ahead predictions is worse than that by the combination of least squares (LS) extrapolation and a stochastic method including autoregressive and NN technology in terms of the mean absolute prediction error. However, the proposed SSA extrapolation in combination with NN modeling can achieve a noticeably better accuracy for the medium- and long-term predictions out 180 days than the combined LS + stochastic technology. The improvement in the prediction accuracy for lead time of 1 year and 2 years can reach up to 53% and 56%, respectively. The combined SSA extrapolation and NN modeling is thus very promising for medium- and long-term prediction of ΔLOD.