Readiness Theory: A New Approach to Understanding Mediated Prenegotiation and Negotiation Processes Leading to Peace Agreements

Abstract

Two main theoretical strands suggest causal explanations for the shifts in the de-escalation dynamics of conflicts, in which parties that had been unwilling to sit together at the negotiating table ultimately agreed to do so and eventually signed an agreement. The first is the ripeness strand which embodies three loosely related subtheories, and the second, a corollary of it, is the readiness strand which is based on readiness theory. By applying readiness theory to two case studies of mediated negotiations which ended in agreement in Aceh (2005) and Sudan (2005), this study illustrates the value of the readiness strand as an integrative analytical framework for examining the negotiation process from prenegotiation to negotiation and agreement. This type of multicausal and dynamic analysis, which considers gradual changes in the variables throughout the process, offers insights for researchers as well as for practitioners.