International climate targets are achievable, but only in models, not in the real world

Abstract

The article argues that the relationships and historical trends of global temperatures and of fossil-fuel production are now both clear and relatively stable. Hence archival data of past performance allow a ‘speedometer reading’ of current rates of change and enable a direct ‘reality check’ on claims about future climate change. Embedded in a new Hubbert-style resource model the historical rates forecast that surface temperatures remain on course to rise by 4.5°C (6°C over land) by the early 2100s. This unsettling prospect is in close accord with several middle-of-the-road projections in the recent sixth IPCC Assessment Report (2021). Instead, if hoped-for targets of carbon neutrality are to be met and global temperature rises held to well below 2°C, as stipulated in the Paris Agreement, then the current rate of deployment of clean power sources would need to accelerate by an unprecedented 100-fold, to around 50 EJ year−1, within the decade.