{"title":"Análisis del patrón espacio-temporal de transmisión del COVID-19 por municipios de Baja California","authors":"Alejandro Brugués Rodríguez, Noé Arón Fuentes Flores, Alejandra Ramírez Cervantes","doi":"10.21670/REF.2108071","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The text analyzes the spatio-temporal pattern of spread of COVID-19 in the municipalities of Baja California from epidemiological week 10 to 31 based on System Dynamics (sd) and Geographic Information Systems (gis) methodologies. The epidemic sir model is used to model the critical factors of pandemic congestion —infection rate and infection recovery rate— with data from the General Directorate of Epidemiology of the Ministry of Health available on June 6, 2020. The epidemiological pattern tends to be spatially concentrated in Mexicali, Tijuana and Tecate, which are home to cross-border workers between the Californias. In addition, it presents a changing temporal dynamic towards the municipalities of Ensenada and Playas de Rosarito, which are the most demanded destinations by Californian tourist.","PeriodicalId":43706,"journal":{"name":"Estudios Fronterizos","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8000,"publicationDate":"2021-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Estudios Fronterizos","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.21670/REF.2108071","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"GEOGRAPHY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Abstract
The text analyzes the spatio-temporal pattern of spread of COVID-19 in the municipalities of Baja California from epidemiological week 10 to 31 based on System Dynamics (sd) and Geographic Information Systems (gis) methodologies. The epidemic sir model is used to model the critical factors of pandemic congestion —infection rate and infection recovery rate— with data from the General Directorate of Epidemiology of the Ministry of Health available on June 6, 2020. The epidemiological pattern tends to be spatially concentrated in Mexicali, Tijuana and Tecate, which are home to cross-border workers between the Californias. In addition, it presents a changing temporal dynamic towards the municipalities of Ensenada and Playas de Rosarito, which are the most demanded destinations by Californian tourist.
本文基于系统动力学（sd）和地理信息系统（gis）方法，分析了新冠肺炎在下加利福尼亚州10至31周流行病学期间的时空传播模式。流行病sir模型用于建模大流行拥堵的关键因素——感染率和感染恢复率——卫生部流行病学总局的数据于2020年6月6日公布。流行病学模式往往在空间上集中在墨西卡利、蒂华纳和特卡特，这些地方是加州之间跨境工人的家园。此外，它还向Ensenada和Playas de Rosarito市呈现了一种不断变化的时间动态，这两个市是加州游客最需要的目的地。
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