A strategic analysis model of residents’ travel demand for Shanghai 2035 under new technology

Abstract

Mobility is a vast and comprehensive system where many new multimodal technology revolutions occur. To make strategies of sustainable development, policy makers particularly focus on the residents’ trip scenarios in the long-term future affected by policies but not the extreme accuracy of the predictions. In this paper, we construct a strategic and integrated model of residents’ travel demand and trip pattern based on system dynamics methods. Changes from and relationships between policies, markets and consumers under electrification, automation and sharing revolution in mobility have been considered in this model. This model follows the utility methods in travel cost calculation from MARS and retains the original framework of travel pattern. Moreover, it includes new modes and models under technology revolutions such as (1) new sharing patterns: paratransit; (2) new travel modes: customized shuttle bus and sharing cars and (3) new vehicle models: EVs and Avs. As using the three-level classification system of ownership—mode—model, this strategic analysis model demonstrated a comprehensive structure of future mobility. The validity of model was verified through a case study of Shanghai 2035 with three scenarios developed under possible policy directions.