Reassessing the Relationship Between Mortgage Loan Investment and Crime Across Race/Ethnicity, Disadvantage, and Instability

Abstract

Home loans are associated with fewer crimes in neighborhoods and some research shows investment may be especially helpful in disadvantaged or minority neighborhoods. To replicate and extend this research, we estimate a series of multilevel negative binomial models on crime to (1) replicate prior research, (2) examine the robustness of extant findings to variable specification, and (3) expand on prior work by examining the conditional role of residential instability. In line with prior work, our results show that tracts receiving larger absolute and relative loan amounts experience fewer violent crimes. However, the magnitude of crime-reduction benefits of investment are attenuated when including aggravated assaults or accounting for the relative value of the loans. Though investment was associated with lower violent crime in all types of tracts, disproportionate benefits of investment—that is, more bang for the buck—occurs more consistently in White tracts than tracts of color. These findings underscore the importance of replication for ensuring sound housing and anti-crime policies.