Regional Power Planning Robust to Multiple Models: Meeting Mexico's 2050 Climate Goals

IF 5.8 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Energy and climate change Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI:10.1016/j.egycc.2022.100076
Rodrigo Mercado Fernandez , Erin Baker , Julio Hernández Galicia
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Abstract

As countries set climate goals, they face questions on how these goals can be reached. Important studies have used a top-down approach, employing and comparing multiple Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to identify possible development pathways. These studies, however, are at very coarse time-steps; and do not include information on the geographic distribution of resources or infrastructure. Moreover, the multi-model approach, while useful, leaves questions as to how policy-makers and planners can use the divergent results. Using Mexico as a case study, we employ a bottom-up model of the electric power system to identify critical geographic areas of investment for installed capacity and transmission that are robust across a set of IAM-derived climate mitigation pathways. We find that, despite a lack of robustness in the location of installed capacity investments, investment in transmission expansion is fairly robust across pathways, as it is driven largely by the location of load rather than of generation.

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多种模式下的区域电力规划:实现墨西哥2050年气候目标
各国在设定气候目标时,面临着如何实现这些目标的问题。重要的研究使用了自上而下的方法,采用和比较多个综合评估模型(iam)来确定可能的发展途径。然而,这些研究的时间步骤非常粗糙;也不包括资源或基础设施的地理分布信息。此外,多模型方法虽然有用,但也留下了政策制定者和规划者如何利用不同结果的问题。以墨西哥为例,我们采用自下而上的电力系统模型来确定装机容量和输电的关键地理投资区域,这些区域在一系列基于iam的气候缓解途径中是稳健的。我们发现,尽管装机容量投资的位置缺乏稳健性,但输电扩张的投资在各路径上相当稳健,因为它主要是由负载位置而不是发电量驱动的。
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来源期刊
Energy and climate change
Energy and climate change Global and Planetary Change, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
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7.90
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0.00%
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