Modelling HIV Intervention among Most-at-Risk/Key Population: Case Study of FWSS in Nigeria

Abstract

Using FWSS in Nigeria as a case study, this research develops a novel risk equation for estimating new infections among FWSS, their clients and communities. It uses a hybrid SUDT and SIT structural model. It considers number of contacts, number of protected and unprotected sexual acts, population and other existing values as base inputs. Simulation of the model was done using python programming. The model also estimates the impacts of these interventions on the clients of the sex workers, their female partners and the general population. The levels of the program implementation, needed on each scenario, to achieve the required number of averted new infections are also modelled. This model can be used to estimate the risk of a population set to a sexually transmitted disease. Public health workers can use the model to prepare a fit for- purpose intervention program for specific community members.