Is War in the Asia-Pacific Avoidable?

Abstract

W hat happens when a rising power meets an established power? This is a fundamental question that has exercised strategic thinkers for centuries, in the process producing a voluminous scholarship that can easily fill multiple libraries. Crucially, however, this is not an abstract question that merely fans the flames of intellectual curiosity. If ongoing developments on the global stage are any measure, it is the signal question of our time—and will remain so for some years to come—as the world witnesses the alarmingly steep descent of Sino-U.S. relations into the realms of great-power competition and rivalry. This being the case, how to prevent both powers from drifting into war has become of paramount importance not only for them but for the entire international community. The main theme of The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the U.S. and Xi Jinping’s China is the management of the Sino-U.S. relationship for the purpose of avoiding open conflict in the coming decade. Few are as well-placed to write this book as its author Kevin Rudd, the Mandarin-speaking former prime minister of Australia and current president of the Asia Society. In it, Rudd brings his wealth of experience and considerable powers of analysis to bear on efforts to navigate the twists and turns of this most vital yet complex of great-power bilateral relationships, helping the reader understand not only how we came to the present state of affairs but, just as important, how both great powers can best manage their competitive relationship so as to prevent the outbreak of war. In essence, The Avoidable War sets out to do three things. First, it provides a thoughtful discussion that describes how and why the bilateral relationship has arrived at this point. This discussion commands the lion’s share of attention in the book. While Rudd does not attribute blame exclusively to China—indeed, he correctly highlights the dearth of understanding and familiarity in the United States with China that has led to inaccurate views and mischaracterizations—he does nevertheless draw attention to the outcome of the more assertive turn in international affairs that has taken place under the leadership of Chinese president