Simulating the impact of elevated thermal condition on wet-season rice grown in Eastern India by different crop growth models

Abstract

Elevated thermal condition caused by global warming is a threat to major crops grown in India as well as other Asian and tropical countries, as it negatively affects the crop phenology, growth, dry-matter production and yield. The present research work aims to assess the impact of elevated temperature on rice production using three crop growth simulation models, namely, DSSAT, WOFOST and InfoCrop. Field experimental data-set of rice for seven years was used for model calibration and validation. After validation, three models were used to predict the yield under 1, 2 and30C rise over normal maximum and minimum temperature. The models were also used to assess the thermal impact on leaf area indices (LAI) and crop duration. It was observed that the crop duration was shortened by almost 10 days for 30C enhancement over normal and the LAI was also reduced considerably. The wet-season rice yield may be reduced by 8.7% for 10C, 12.5% for20C and 21.1% for 30C increase of normal temperature. Use of combination of more than one crop models can predict the climate change impact on rice production more reliably.