How Exceptional Is the West? An Investigation of Worldwide Trends in Societal-Average Levels of Religiosity, 1981–2020

Abstract

Research shows most Western societies became less religious over recent decades. But we know much less about the rest of the world. Is the non-Western world also becoming less religious, as some varieties of secularization theory would lead us to expect? Using 1981-to-2020 World/European Values Survey data from 103 countries, this study describes, and uses mixed-effects models to rigorously estimate, religious trends in eight world regions and five former Soviet and Eastern Bloc (FSEB) subregions. Results indicate that religious decline occurred in Latin America, Central and Baltic Europe, and (recently) in the Mideast and North Africa. But there is little evidence of such decline elsewhere in Asia, Africa, or the FSEB—despite the broad reach of many modernizing social trends. These findings do not lend support to a strong version of secularization theory but may be consistent with some versions of the idea that modernization can make people less religious.