Risk assessment of the extraordinary pollution in the Adriatic Sea as an economically important area for the Republic of Croatia

Abstract

Risk assessment links the likelihood of adverse events occurring to their consequences. Such assessment is used in labour management and trade-off determination to identify the safety and impacts associated with a particular interest. In the maritime sector, it is mainly used to raise safety standards, prevent pollution, and maintain a healthy marine ecosystem. Risk control itself is traditionally focused on the relationships between individual actions and consequences, which are later considered in groups to assess their acceptability in accordance with safety requirements. Therefore, the risk assessment for the extraordinary pollution of the Adriatic Sea as an economically important area for the Republic of Croatia are described in this paper. First, the area of analysis is defined, and a meteorological description of the eastern Adriatic coast is provided. The risk assessment is carried out in three steps. The first step is a description of waterways, and the analysis of traffic density, regulations, and types of vessels in individual areas. The second step is a detailed analysis of statistical data on accidents in the Adriatic Sea. Finally, the most probable and the most undesirable extraordinary pollution events and their impact on the Croatian economy are analysed. In addition, examples and procedures for determining risk acceptability and its control in a part of the Croatian coast are presented.