{"title":"Solar GHI Ensemble Prediction Based on a Meteorological Model and Method Kalman Filter","authors":"Yuanyuan Liu","doi":"10.1155/2022/1523198","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The intensity of light emanating from sun is determined by using a meteorological version and is altered with the numerical version, and the forecast accuracy is improved in advance by using Kalman Filter. As the accuracy of the version output related to its specific position is often questionable, group prediction constituting three members is suggested and agreed upon measurement. Also, this ensemble prediction provides an estimation of the solar global horizontal irradiance uncertainty (i.e., coverage rate of the prediction interval), which can be useful to provide flexible energy production forecasts. This article displays how the method Kalman filter could be used as an error correction way to alter the predicted irradiance value. The Kalman filter ameliorates the prediction of solar global horizontal irradiance as well as its interval. As the empirical coverage rate increases and closes to the nominal coverage rate, the interval size reduces.","PeriodicalId":7353,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Meteorology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1000,"publicationDate":"2022-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Advances in Meteorology","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/1523198","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The intensity of light emanating from sun is determined by using a meteorological version and is altered with the numerical version, and the forecast accuracy is improved in advance by using Kalman Filter. As the accuracy of the version output related to its specific position is often questionable, group prediction constituting three members is suggested and agreed upon measurement. Also, this ensemble prediction provides an estimation of the solar global horizontal irradiance uncertainty (i.e., coverage rate of the prediction interval), which can be useful to provide flexible energy production forecasts. This article displays how the method Kalman filter could be used as an error correction way to alter the predicted irradiance value. The Kalman filter ameliorates the prediction of solar global horizontal irradiance as well as its interval. As the empirical coverage rate increases and closes to the nominal coverage rate, the interval size reduces.
期刊介绍:
Advances in Meteorology is a peer-reviewed, Open Access journal that publishes original research articles as well as review articles in all areas of meteorology and climatology. Topics covered include, but are not limited to, forecasting techniques and applications, meteorological modeling, data analysis, atmospheric chemistry and physics, climate change, satellite meteorology, marine meteorology, and forest meteorology.