The current paper evaluates the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model sensitivity to five different combinations of cumulus, microphysics, radiation, and planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes over Loess Plateau for the period 2015, in terms of 2 m temperature and precipitation. The WRF configuration consists of a 10 km resolution domain nested in a coarser domain driven by European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data. The model simulated 2 m temperature and precipitation have been evaluated at daily and monthly scales with gridded observational dataset. The analysis shows that all experiments reproduce well the daily 2 m temperature, with overestimation particularly in the low-temperature range. Precipitation is less well simulated, with underestimation in all range, especially for intense rainfall. Comparing with ERA-Interim, WRF shows no clear benefit in simulating daily 2 m temperature while prominent improvement in simulating daily precipitation. WRF simulations capture the annual cycle of monthly 2 m temperature and precipitation with a warm bias and wet bias for most experiments in summer. Some reasonable configurations are identified. The “best” configuration depends on the criteria.
{"title":"Sensitivity of WRF-Simulated 2 m Temperature and Precipitation to Physics Options over the Loess Plateau","authors":"Siliang Liu","doi":"10.1155/2024/6633255","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2024/6633255","url":null,"abstract":"The current paper evaluates the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model sensitivity to five different combinations of cumulus, microphysics, radiation, and planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes over Loess Plateau for the period 2015, in terms of 2 m temperature and precipitation. The WRF configuration consists of a 10 km resolution domain nested in a coarser domain driven by European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data. The model simulated 2 m temperature and precipitation have been evaluated at daily and monthly scales with gridded observational dataset. The analysis shows that all experiments reproduce well the daily 2 m temperature, with overestimation particularly in the low-temperature range. Precipitation is less well simulated, with underestimation in all range, especially for intense rainfall. Comparing with ERA-Interim, WRF shows no clear benefit in simulating daily 2 m temperature while prominent improvement in simulating daily precipitation. WRF simulations capture the annual cycle of monthly 2 m temperature and precipitation with a warm bias and wet bias for most experiments in summer. Some reasonable configurations are identified. The “best” configuration depends on the criteria.","PeriodicalId":7353,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Meteorology","volume":"55 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140839284","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Wanyi Zuo, Zhigang Ren, Xiaofang Shan, Zeng Zhou, Qinli Deng
The rapid development of urbanization makes the phenomenon of urban heat islands even more serious. Predicting the impact of land cover change on urban heat island has become one of the research hotspots. Taking Wuhan, China, as an example, this study simulated the land type change in 2020 through the Cellular Automata-Markov-Chain (CA-Markov) model. The urban heat island in 2020 was simulated and analyzed in conjunction with the Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF), and the simulation results of wind velocity and temperature were confirmed using weather station observation data. Based on this, the land cover and urban heat island of Wuhan in 2030 were predicted. The temperature was found to be well-fit by CA-Markov simulated land use data, with an average inaccuracy of about 2.5°C for weather stations. Wind speed had a poor fitting effect; the average error was roughly 2 m/s. The built-up area was the center of the high temperature area both before and after the prediction, the water was the low temperature area, and the peak heat island happened at night. According to the forecast results, there will be more built-up land in 2030, and there will be a greater intensity of heat islands than in 2020.
{"title":"Analysis of Urban Heat Island Effect in Wuhan Urban Area Based on Prediction of Urban Underlying Surface Coverage Type Change","authors":"Wanyi Zuo, Zhigang Ren, Xiaofang Shan, Zeng Zhou, Qinli Deng","doi":"10.1155/2024/4509221","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2024/4509221","url":null,"abstract":"The rapid development of urbanization makes the phenomenon of urban heat islands even more serious. Predicting the impact of land cover change on urban heat island has become one of the research hotspots. Taking Wuhan, China, as an example, this study simulated the land type change in 2020 through the Cellular Automata-Markov-Chain (CA-Markov) model. The urban heat island in 2020 was simulated and analyzed in conjunction with the Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF), and the simulation results of wind velocity and temperature were confirmed using weather station observation data. Based on this, the land cover and urban heat island of Wuhan in 2030 were predicted. The temperature was found to be well-fit by CA-Markov simulated land use data, with an average inaccuracy of about 2.5°C for weather stations. Wind speed had a poor fitting effect; the average error was roughly 2 m/s. The built-up area was the center of the high temperature area both before and after the prediction, the water was the low temperature area, and the peak heat island happened at night. According to the forecast results, there will be more built-up land in 2030, and there will be a greater intensity of heat islands than in 2020.","PeriodicalId":7353,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Meteorology","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140635205","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study was employed to investigate the temporal variability and trend analysis of areal rainfall in the Muger subwatershed, Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia. The study was run over the following procedures to handle the main objective: (1) determining the areal rainfall from gauged point rainfall using the Thiessen polygon method, (2) grouping the months in the season according to the study area, (3) evaluating the temporal dynamics of annual and seasonal areal rainfall using the coefficient of variation (CV), standard anomaly index (SAI), and precipitation concentration index (PCI), and (4) analyzing the trend of annual and seasonal areal rainfall using modified Mann–Kendall’s (modifiedmk) test in RStudio. Based on the temporal variability analysis, CV results depict that annual and summer areal rainfall had low variability with values of 13.43% and 13.7%, respectively. Winter and spring areal rainfall shows high variation with a CV value of 50.5% and 36%, respectively. According to the SAI output, around 70% of the considered year was in the normal condition of wetness. On the other hand, the seasonal (winter, spring, and summer) rainfall distribution of the study area shows strong irregularity distribution throughout the considered years as a result of PCI with a value of 57.5%. The trend of the areal rainfall was shown to be both increasing and decreasing. However, the trend was insignificant with a 10% confidence level.
{"title":"Temporal Dynamics and Trend Analysis of Areal Rainfall in Muger Subwatershed, Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia","authors":"Alene Moshe, Manamno Beza","doi":"10.1155/2024/6261501","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2024/6261501","url":null,"abstract":"This study was employed to investigate the temporal variability and trend analysis of areal rainfall in the Muger subwatershed, Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia. The study was run over the following procedures to handle the main objective: (1) determining the areal rainfall from gauged point rainfall using the Thiessen polygon method, (2) grouping the months in the season according to the study area, (3) evaluating the temporal dynamics of annual and seasonal areal rainfall using the coefficient of variation (CV), standard anomaly index (SAI), and precipitation concentration index (PCI), and (4) analyzing the trend of annual and seasonal areal rainfall using modified Mann–Kendall’s (modifiedmk) test in RStudio. Based on the temporal variability analysis, CV results depict that annual and summer areal rainfall had low variability with values of 13.43% and 13.7%, respectively. Winter and spring areal rainfall shows high variation with a CV value of 50.5% and 36%, respectively. According to the SAI output, around 70% of the considered year was in the normal condition of wetness. On the other hand, the seasonal (winter, spring, and summer) rainfall distribution of the study area shows strong irregularity distribution throughout the considered years as a result of PCI with a value of 57.5%. The trend of the areal rainfall was shown to be both increasing and decreasing. However, the trend was insignificant with a 10% confidence level.","PeriodicalId":7353,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Meteorology","volume":"300 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140598549","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Rachid Addou, Khalid Obda, Nir Y. Krakauer, Mohamed Hanchane, Ridouane Kessabi, Bouchta El Khazzan, Imad Eddine Achir
This study examines the spatiotemporal variability of mean monthly temperature in the Moulouya watershed of northeastern Morocco, highlighting associated trends. To this end, statistical methods widely recommended by climate researchers were adopted. We used monthly mean temperature data for the period 1980–2020 from 9 measuring stations belonging to the Moulouya Watershed Agency (ABHM). These stations were rigorously selected, taking into account their reliability, the length of their records, and their geographical position in the basin. In addition, a quality test and homogenization of the temperature series were carried out using the Climatol tool. The results obtained show a significant upward trend in mean monthly temperature, mainly pronounced during the summer months, in the Moulouya watershed. In fact, Z values generally exceeded the 0.05 significance level at all stations during April, May, June, July, August, and October. According to the results of Sen’s slope test, mean monthly temperatures show an annual increase ranging from 0 to 0.13°C. The maximum magnitude of warming is recorded in July, specifically at Oujda Station. On an overall watershed scale, May, August, and July show a rapid warming trend, with average rates of 0.093, 0.086, and 0.08°C per year, respectively. By contrast, the series for the other months show no significant trend. Significant trend change points were also identified at watershed and station scales, mainly around 2000, primarily for accelerated warming of the summer months.
{"title":"Statistical Analysis for the Detection of Change Points and the Evaluation of Monthly Mean Temperature Trends of the Moulouya Basin (Morocco)","authors":"Rachid Addou, Khalid Obda, Nir Y. Krakauer, Mohamed Hanchane, Ridouane Kessabi, Bouchta El Khazzan, Imad Eddine Achir","doi":"10.1155/2024/5027669","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2024/5027669","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the spatiotemporal variability of mean monthly temperature in the Moulouya watershed of northeastern Morocco, highlighting associated trends. To this end, statistical methods widely recommended by climate researchers were adopted. We used monthly mean temperature data for the period 1980–2020 from 9 measuring stations belonging to the Moulouya Watershed Agency (ABHM). These stations were rigorously selected, taking into account their reliability, the length of their records, and their geographical position in the basin. In addition, a quality test and homogenization of the temperature series were carried out using the Climatol tool. The results obtained show a significant upward trend in mean monthly temperature, mainly pronounced during the summer months, in the Moulouya watershed. In fact, <i>Z</i> values generally exceeded the 0.05 significance level at all stations during April, May, June, July, August, and October. According to the results of Sen’s slope test, mean monthly temperatures show an annual increase ranging from 0 to 0.13°C. The maximum magnitude of warming is recorded in July, specifically at Oujda Station. On an overall watershed scale, May, August, and July show a rapid warming trend, with average rates of 0.093, 0.086, and 0.08°C per year, respectively. By contrast, the series for the other months show no significant trend. Significant trend change points were also identified at watershed and station scales, mainly around 2000, primarily for accelerated warming of the summer months.","PeriodicalId":7353,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Meteorology","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140598555","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this study, solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation data collected in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, between 2015 and 2022 were analyzed to explore quasi-periodicities in the UV time series. The power spectrum density analysis revealed several local peaks that exceeded the 95% confidence interval. These peaks included periodicities of 483–490 days, 272 days, 157−162 days, 103−110 days, 64–72 days, 27 days, and 13 days. To investigate the potential influence of space weather parameters on UV radiation, data on cosmic rays, solar radio flux at 10.7 cm (F10.7 cm), the Kp index, and solar wind speed for the same time period were examined. The aim was to identify periodicities in these variables that aligned with those found in the UV radiation data. The analysis reveals that several periodicities observed in the UV radiation spectrum are also present in the spectra of the considered parameters. Prominent periodicities include a 270-day cycle in UV radiation and cosmic rays, as well as periodicities of 72 days, 27 days, and 13 days in all considered variables. Furthermore, 110-day peaks are observed in spectrum of the UV radiation, the Kp index, solar radio flux F10.7, and solar wind speed. Notably, consistent peaks at 157-day periodicity are identified in the UV spectrum, also present in the spectra of all the considered variables (cosmic rays ∼162 days, Kp index ∼162 days, solar radio flux ∼156 days, and solar wind speed ∼163 days). The identification of common periodicities between UV radiation and space weather parameters in this study provides compelling evidence of a potential direct or indirect influence of solar variations on UV radiation. This finding significantly enhances our understanding of the impact of extraterrestrial factors, particularly solar activity, on the Earth’s environment.
{"title":"Ultraviolet Radiation Quasi-Periodicities and Their Possible Link with the Cosmic Ray and Solar Interplanetary Data","authors":"A. Maghrabi","doi":"10.1155/2024/1165223","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2024/1165223","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation data collected in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, between 2015 and 2022 were analyzed to explore quasi-periodicities in the UV time series. The power spectrum density analysis revealed several local peaks that exceeded the 95% confidence interval. These peaks included periodicities of 483–490 days, 272 days, 157−162 days, 103−110 days, 64–72 days, 27 days, and 13 days. To investigate the potential influence of space weather parameters on UV radiation, data on cosmic rays, solar radio flux at 10.7 cm (F10.7 cm), the Kp index, and solar wind speed for the same time period were examined. The aim was to identify periodicities in these variables that aligned with those found in the UV radiation data. The analysis reveals that several periodicities observed in the UV radiation spectrum are also present in the spectra of the considered parameters. Prominent periodicities include a 270-day cycle in UV radiation and cosmic rays, as well as periodicities of 72 days, 27 days, and 13 days in all considered variables. Furthermore, 110-day peaks are observed in spectrum of the UV radiation, the Kp index, solar radio flux F10.7, and solar wind speed. Notably, consistent peaks at 157-day periodicity are identified in the UV spectrum, also present in the spectra of all the considered variables (cosmic rays ∼162 days, Kp index ∼162 days, solar radio flux ∼156 days, and solar wind speed ∼163 days). The identification of common periodicities between UV radiation and space weather parameters in this study provides compelling evidence of a potential direct or indirect influence of solar variations on UV radiation. This finding significantly enhances our understanding of the impact of extraterrestrial factors, particularly solar activity, on the Earth’s environment.","PeriodicalId":7353,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Meteorology","volume":"111 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140167497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Meteorological drought poses a frequent challenge in the Nile River basin, yet its comprehensive evaluation across the basin has been hindered by insufficient recorded rainfall data. Common indices like the standard precipitation index, coefficients of variation, and precipitation concentration index serve as pivotal tools in gauging drought severity. This research aimed to assess the meteorological drought status in the Nile River basin by using the Power Data Access Viewer product rainfall data. Bias correction procedures were implemented to refine the monthly rainfall data for Bahirdar, Markos, Nekemt, and Muger stations, resulting in notable improvements in the coefficient of determination () that were increased from 0.74 to 0.93, 0.72 to 0.89, 0.71 to 0.96, and 0.69 to 0.84, respectively. The average spatial distribution of drought in the Nile basin was classified as extremely wet (3.81%), severely wet (9.01%), moderately wet (7.36%), near normal (9.97%), moderately drought (21.20%), severely drought (17.11%), and extremely drought (31.54%). Approximately 10.33% of the Nile River basin was situated in regions characterized by high rainfall variability, while around 21.17% was located in areas with a notably irregular precipitation concentration index. Overall, this study sheds light on the prevailing meteorological drought patterns in the Nile River basin, emphasizing the significance of understanding and managing these phenomena for the sustainable development of the region.
{"title":"Power Data Access Viewer-Based Meteorological Drought Analysis and Rainfall Variability in the Nile River Basin","authors":"Birara Gebeyhu","doi":"10.1155/2024/9985773","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2024/9985773","url":null,"abstract":"Meteorological drought poses a frequent challenge in the Nile River basin, yet its comprehensive evaluation across the basin has been hindered by insufficient recorded rainfall data. Common indices like the standard precipitation index, coefficients of variation, and precipitation concentration index serve as pivotal tools in gauging drought severity. This research aimed to assess the meteorological drought status in the Nile River basin by using the Power Data Access Viewer product rainfall data. Bias correction procedures were implemented to refine the monthly rainfall data for Bahirdar, Markos, Nekemt, and Muger stations, resulting in notable improvements in the coefficient of determination (<span><svg height=\"11.7978pt\" style=\"vertical-align:-0.2063999pt\" version=\"1.1\" viewbox=\"-0.0498162 -11.5914 13.2276 11.7978\" width=\"13.2276pt\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink\"><g transform=\"matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)\"></path></g><g transform=\"matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,8.151,-5.741)\"></path></g></svg>)</span> that were increased from 0.74 to 0.93, 0.72 to 0.89, 0.71 to 0.96, and 0.69 to 0.84, respectively. The average spatial distribution of drought in the Nile basin was classified as extremely wet (3.81%), severely wet (9.01%), moderately wet (7.36%), near normal (9.97%), moderately drought (21.20%), severely drought (17.11%), and extremely drought (31.54%). Approximately 10.33% of the Nile River basin was situated in regions characterized by high rainfall variability, while around 21.17% was located in areas with a notably irregular precipitation concentration index. Overall, this study sheds light on the prevailing meteorological drought patterns in the Nile River basin, emphasizing the significance of understanding and managing these phenomena for the sustainable development of the region.","PeriodicalId":7353,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Meteorology","volume":"32 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140032604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Lan Zhang, Jiawen Zheng, Huaiyu Li, Rui Yu, Lei Wei, Yufei Zhang
On May 11, 2022, despite the favorable upper and lower-level circulation patterns of the high-altitude trough, shear line, and southwest jet stream, the urban cluster of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area experienced light to moderate rainfall, deviating significantly from the forecasted heavy rain and local heavy rainstorm. This study explores the reasons for false alarms and predictability using ground observation data, radar data, ECMWF-ERA5 reanalysis field data, and ECMWF and CMA-TRAMS forecast data. The results indicate that the warm and moist airflow transported by the low-level jet stream was intercepted by the upstream MCS (mesoscale convective system) along the coastal area of western Guangdong, and inadequate conditions of negative vorticity dynamics led to insufficient moisture, thermodynamic, and dynamic conditions over the urban cluster, preventing the triggering of heavy precipitation. In addition, the 700 hPa westerly flow guiding the airflow and the stable low-level shear line, coupled with surface convergence lines, influenced the northward or southward movement of MCSs along the coastal and inland regions of western Guangdong. The weak and discontinuous intensity of echoes in the upstream Zhaoqing region further hindered the influence of surrounding echoes on the urban cluster. Numerical forecast models ECMWF and CMA-TRAMS overestimated the 850 hPa windspeed and 925 hPa meridional windspeed, resulting in the forecasted urban cluster experiencing heavy rain. Sensitivity tests of wind fields indicate that the 850 hPa wind field information is more sensitive to precipitation in the urban cluster. In this process, weak signal correction can be achieved in strong precipitation forecasts using the distinct signal of lower 850 hPa water vapor flux divergence compared to 925 hPa. Therefore, in the future, when the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area encounters similar warm-sector heavy rainfall events, adjustments to model forecasts can be made using specific 850 hPa elements such as wind speed, water vapor flux divergence, or specific humidity to enhance predictive accuracy.
{"title":"False Alarm Causes and Wind Field Sensitivity Analysis of a Severe Rainfall Event in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Urban Cluster","authors":"Lan Zhang, Jiawen Zheng, Huaiyu Li, Rui Yu, Lei Wei, Yufei Zhang","doi":"10.1155/2024/6819711","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2024/6819711","url":null,"abstract":"On May 11, 2022, despite the favorable upper and lower-level circulation patterns of the high-altitude trough, shear line, and southwest jet stream, the urban cluster of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area experienced light to moderate rainfall, deviating significantly from the forecasted heavy rain and local heavy rainstorm. This study explores the reasons for false alarms and predictability using ground observation data, radar data, ECMWF-ERA5 reanalysis field data, and ECMWF and CMA-TRAMS forecast data. The results indicate that the warm and moist airflow transported by the low-level jet stream was intercepted by the upstream MCS (mesoscale convective system) along the coastal area of western Guangdong, and inadequate conditions of negative vorticity dynamics led to insufficient moisture, thermodynamic, and dynamic conditions over the urban cluster, preventing the triggering of heavy precipitation. In addition, the 700 hPa westerly flow guiding the airflow and the stable low-level shear line, coupled with surface convergence lines, influenced the northward or southward movement of MCSs along the coastal and inland regions of western Guangdong. The weak and discontinuous intensity of echoes in the upstream Zhaoqing region further hindered the influence of surrounding echoes on the urban cluster. Numerical forecast models ECMWF and CMA-TRAMS overestimated the 850 hPa windspeed and 925 hPa meridional windspeed, resulting in the forecasted urban cluster experiencing heavy rain. Sensitivity tests of wind fields indicate that the 850 hPa wind field information is more sensitive to precipitation in the urban cluster. In this process, weak signal correction can be achieved in strong precipitation forecasts using the distinct signal of lower 850 hPa water vapor flux divergence compared to 925 hPa. Therefore, in the future, when the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area encounters similar warm-sector heavy rainfall events, adjustments to model forecasts can be made using specific 850 hPa elements such as wind speed, water vapor flux divergence, or specific humidity to enhance predictive accuracy.","PeriodicalId":7353,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Meteorology","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140025376","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Khuong Le Pham, Anh Xuan Nguyen, Hiep Van Nguyen, Son Hai Hoang, Vinh Nhu Nguyen, Thang Van Vu
This article uses data from the second-generation Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC-2) satellites (wetPf2) to study the temperature and humidity properties of the air masses over Paracel and Spratly Islands in the Vietnam East Sea (South China Sea). The satellite observational data were validated with the radiosonde data from three stations in Vietnam: Hanoi, Danang, and Ho Chi Minh City. Subsequently, the wetPf2 data are used to analyze the characteristics of temperature and relative humidity variations of the air masses over the Paracel and Spratly regions. Results show that the mean error of the satellite observational data for temperature ranges from −0.06°C to −0.02°C, with standard deviations ranging from 0.73°C to 1.04°C. The mean error of relative humidity fluctuates between 11.6% and 12.5%, with standard deviations ranging from 15.1% to 19.1%. The values are reasonable and comparable to those in previous studies. Seasonal variations of temperature and humidity show that the air mass over the Paracel Islands exhibits a larger annual temperature with an annual variation of approximately 5.0°C, significantly higher than the value of 2.2°C in the air mass over the Spratly Islands. The difference may be due to the greater influence of continental and seasonal wind systems in the northern region. Within both air masses, the annual temperature variation in the boundary layer is much larger than that in the free atmosphere. Annual relative humidity variation is higher in summer and autumn than in winter and spring. The significant changes in the relative humidity with height during winter and no significant change of the relative humidity with height during summer may be related to the important role of strong convective activity carrying moist air upward to higher atmospheric levels during the summer time.
{"title":"Application of wetPf2 Data for Investigating Characteristics of Temperature and Humidity of Air Masses over Paracel and Spratly Islands","authors":"Khuong Le Pham, Anh Xuan Nguyen, Hiep Van Nguyen, Son Hai Hoang, Vinh Nhu Nguyen, Thang Van Vu","doi":"10.1155/2024/9927285","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2024/9927285","url":null,"abstract":"This article uses data from the second-generation Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC-2) satellites (wetPf2) to study the temperature and humidity properties of the air masses over Paracel and Spratly Islands in the Vietnam East Sea (South China Sea). The satellite observational data were validated with the radiosonde data from three stations in Vietnam: Hanoi, Danang, and Ho Chi Minh City. Subsequently, the wetPf2 data are used to analyze the characteristics of temperature and relative humidity variations of the air masses over the Paracel and Spratly regions. Results show that the mean error of the satellite observational data for temperature ranges from −0.06°C to −0.02°C, with standard deviations ranging from 0.73°C to 1.04°C. The mean error of relative humidity fluctuates between 11.6% and 12.5%, with standard deviations ranging from 15.1% to 19.1%. The values are reasonable and comparable to those in previous studies. Seasonal variations of temperature and humidity show that the air mass over the Paracel Islands exhibits a larger annual temperature with an annual variation of approximately 5.0°C, significantly higher than the value of 2.2°C in the air mass over the Spratly Islands. The difference may be due to the greater influence of continental and seasonal wind systems in the northern region. Within both air masses, the annual temperature variation in the boundary layer is much larger than that in the free atmosphere. Annual relative humidity variation is higher in summer and autumn than in winter and spring. The significant changes in the relative humidity with height during winter and no significant change of the relative humidity with height during summer may be related to the important role of strong convective activity carrying moist air upward to higher atmospheric levels during the summer time.","PeriodicalId":7353,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Meteorology","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140006884","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Accurate forecasting of reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) is vital for sustainable water resource management. In this study, four popularly used single models were selected to forecast ET0 values, including support vector regression, Bayesian linear regression, ridge regression, and lasso regression models, respectively. They all had advantages of low requirement of data input and good capability of data fitting. However, forecast errors inevitably existed in those forecasting models due to data noise or overfitting. In order to improve the forecast accuracy of models, hybrid models were proposed to integrate the advantages of the single models. Before the construction of hybrid models, each single model’s weight was determined based on two weight determination methods, namely, the variance reciprocal and information entropy weighting methods. To validate the accuracy of the proposed hybrid models, 1–30 d forecast data from January 2 to February 1, 2022, were used as a test set in Xinxiang, North China Plain. The results confirmed the feasibility of the information entropy-based hybrid model. In detail, the information entropy model generated the mean absolute percentage errors of 11.9% or a decrease by 48.9% compared to the single and variance reciprocal hybrid models. Moreover, the model generated a correlation coefficient of 0.90 for 1–30 d ET0 forecasting or an increase by 13.6% compared to other models. The standard deviation and the root mean square error of the information entropy model were 1.65 mm·d−1 and 0.61 mm·d−1 or had a decrease by 16.4% and 23.7%. The maximum precision and the F1 score were 0.9618 and 0.9742 for the information entropy model. It was concluded that the information entropy-based hybrid model had the best midterm (1–30 d) ET0 forecasting performance in the North China Plain.
{"title":"Information Entropy-Based Hybrid Models Improve the Accuracy of Reference Evapotranspiration Forecast","authors":"Anzhen Qin, Zhilong Fan, Liuzeng Zhang","doi":"10.1155/2024/9922690","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2024/9922690","url":null,"abstract":"Accurate forecasting of reference crop evapotranspiration (ET<sub>0</sub>) is vital for sustainable water resource management. In this study, four popularly used single models were selected to forecast ET<sub>0</sub> values, including support vector regression, Bayesian linear regression, ridge regression, and lasso regression models, respectively. They all had advantages of low requirement of data input and good capability of data fitting. However, forecast errors inevitably existed in those forecasting models due to data noise or overfitting. In order to improve the forecast accuracy of models, hybrid models were proposed to integrate the advantages of the single models. Before the construction of hybrid models, each single model’s weight was determined based on two weight determination methods, namely, the variance reciprocal and information entropy weighting methods. To validate the accuracy of the proposed hybrid models, 1–30 d forecast data from January 2 to February 1, 2022, were used as a test set in Xinxiang, North China Plain. The results confirmed the feasibility of the information entropy-based hybrid model. In detail, the information entropy model generated the mean absolute percentage errors of 11.9% or a decrease by 48.9% compared to the single and variance reciprocal hybrid models. Moreover, the model generated a correlation coefficient of 0.90 for 1–30 d ET<sub>0</sub> forecasting or an increase by 13.6% compared to other models. The standard deviation and the root mean square error of the information entropy model were 1.65 mm·d<sup>−1</sup> and 0.61 mm·d<sup>−1</sup> or had a decrease by 16.4% and 23.7%. The maximum precision and the <i>F</i>1 score were 0.9618 and 0.9742 for the information entropy model. It was concluded that the information entropy-based hybrid model had the best midterm (1–30 d) ET<sub>0</sub> forecasting performance in the North China Plain.","PeriodicalId":7353,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Meteorology","volume":"181 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139666571","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Erick A. Kyojo, Silas S. Mirau, Sarah E. Osima, Verdiana G. Masanja
This study focuses on modeling and predicting extreme rainfall based on data from the Southern Highlands region, the critical for rain-fed agriculture in Tanzania. Analyzing 31 years of annual maximum rainfall data spanning from 1990 to 2020, the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) model proved to be the best for modeling extreme rainfall in all stations. Three estimation methods–L-moments, maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), and Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)–were employed to estimate GEV parameters and future return levels. The Bayesian MCMC approach demonstrated superior performance by incorporating noninformative priors to ensure that the prior information had minimal influence on the analysis, allowing the observed data to play a dominant role in shaping the posterior distribution. Furthermore, return levels for various future periods were estimated, providing guidance for flood protection measures and infrastructure design. Trend analysis using value, Kendall’s tau, and Sen’s slope indicated no statistically significant trends in rainfall patterns, although a weak positive trend in extreme rainfall events was observed, suggesting a gradual and modest increase over time. Overall, the study contributes valuable insights into extreme rainfall patterns and underscores the importance of L-moments in identifying the best fit distribution and Bayesian MCMC methodology for accurate parameter estimation and prediction, enabling effective measures and infrastructure planning in the region.
{"title":"Frequentist and Bayesian Approaches in Modeling and Prediction of Extreme Rainfall Series: A Case Study from Southern Highlands Region of Tanzania","authors":"Erick A. Kyojo, Silas S. Mirau, Sarah E. Osima, Verdiana G. Masanja","doi":"10.1155/2024/8533930","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2024/8533930","url":null,"abstract":"This study focuses on modeling and predicting extreme rainfall based on data from the Southern Highlands region, the critical for rain-fed agriculture in Tanzania. Analyzing 31 years of annual maximum rainfall data spanning from 1990 to 2020, the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) model proved to be the best for modeling extreme rainfall in all stations. Three estimation methods–<i>L</i>-moments, maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), and Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)–were employed to estimate GEV parameters and future return levels. The Bayesian MCMC approach demonstrated superior performance by incorporating noninformative priors to ensure that the prior information had minimal influence on the analysis, allowing the observed data to play a dominant role in shaping the posterior distribution. Furthermore, return levels for various future periods were estimated, providing guidance for flood protection measures and infrastructure design. Trend analysis using <svg height=\"10.2124pt\" style=\"vertical-align:-3.42943pt\" version=\"1.1\" viewbox=\"-0.0498162 -6.78297 7.83752 10.2124\" width=\"7.83752pt\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink\"><g transform=\"matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)\"></path></g></svg> value, Kendall’s tau, and Sen’s slope indicated no statistically significant trends in rainfall patterns, although a weak positive trend in extreme rainfall events was observed, suggesting a gradual and modest increase over time. Overall, the study contributes valuable insights into extreme rainfall patterns and underscores the importance of <i>L</i>-moments in identifying the best fit distribution and Bayesian MCMC methodology for accurate parameter estimation and prediction, enabling effective measures and infrastructure planning in the region.","PeriodicalId":7353,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Meteorology","volume":"34 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139583177","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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