Modelling MODIS Land Surface Temperature Change in Antarctica from 2000 to 2019 Using Cubic Spline Model

Maleekee Dengmasa, P. Tongkumchum, Arinda Ma-a-lee
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Abstract

Abstract Land surface temperature (LST) data derived from the satellite is increasingly required to supplement the limited weather stations for assessing temperature trends in Antarctica. This study analyses the LST based on data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard NASA’s satellite length from 2000 to 2019 at a systematic 108 sub-regions. Antarctica was divided into 12 regions, each consisting of 9 sub-regions. A cubic spline model adjusted for seasonal patterns and the autoregressive process adjusted for time series correlation. Change in LST in sub-regions was estimated by fitting the simple linear model, while cycle and acceleration were estimated using cubic spline models. Multivariate regression adjusted for spatial correlation and was used to estimate the LST increase in regions. The seasonal patterns for all 108 sub-regions were found to be quite similar. Out of 108 sub-regions, only 30 had statistically significant decreasing trends. The 12 regions showed that most temperature trends decreased, although only 5 regions were statistically significant. The results for the entire Antarctic continent showed a statistically significant decrease and a 95% confidence interval ranging from -0.668 to -0.068 °C per decade. Keywords: Land surface temperature, MODIS, Cubic spline, Autocorrelations, Spatial correlations
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利用三次样条模型模拟2000 - 2019年南极洲MODIS地表温度变化
越来越多地需要来自卫星的地表温度(LST)数据来补充有限的气象站来评估南极洲的温度趋势。本研究基于2000 - 2019年NASA卫星上的中分辨率成像光谱仪(MODIS)数据,对108个子区域的地表温度进行了分析。南极洲被划分为12个区域,每个区域由9个子区域组成。一个三次样条模型调整季节模式和自回归过程调整时间序列相关。通过拟合简单线性模型估计各子区域的地表温度变化,利用三次样条模型估计周期和加速度。利用多元回归校正了空间相关性,估计了各区域的地表温度增长。发现所有108个分区域的季节模式非常相似。在108个分区域中,只有30个在统计上有显著的下降趋势。12个地区的气温变化趋势均呈下降趋势,但只有5个地区的气温变化趋势具有统计学意义。整个南极大陆的结果显示统计上显著下降,95%置信区间为每十年-0.668°C至-0.068°C。关键词:地表温度,MODIS,三次样条,自相关,空间相关
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来源期刊
Chiang Mai University journal of natural sciences
Chiang Mai University journal of natural sciences Health Professions-Health Professions (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
1.70
自引率
0.00%
发文量
67
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