Asymmetric spillover effects of Covid-19 on the performance of the Islamic finance industry: A wave analysis and forecasting

Abstract

This paper investigates the spillover effects of the waves of Covid-19 that affected the performance of the Islamic financial sector index (KMI 30) concerning Pakistan's stock exchange. The daily data is used on confirmed registered cases of Covid-19 and the KMI 30 stock prices from February 2020 to June 2022. The data is distributed into five segments on the basis of Covid-19 waves. The asymmetric GJR-GARCH is used to capture the effect of Covid-19 during each wave and E-GARCH is used to see the positive and negative impacts of Covid-19 on KMI through spillover effects. The E-GARCH model also serves to forecast the conditional variance. The Chow structural break point and Bai and Perron tests identify the structural breaks in each wave. Results of structural break testing confirm the presence breaks in each wave. Meanwhile volatility modeling results indicate there is an asymmetric effect in the return series. The E-GARCH model results reveal that there is return and volatility spillover effect from Covid-19 to KMI 30 in each wave. In future the conditional volatility remains less than the expected volatility as predicted by the forecasting statistics. We respond to policy calls by sharing our novel research in not only combating, but also assisting the required urgency of planning for future of Covid-19 outbreaks.